The first meeting of newly constituted Senate Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs was held in Islamabad on 9 July 2024.
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar gave a detailed briefing to the Committee on contours of Pakistan’s foreign policy and its priorities.
He especially mentioned high-level engagement with regional partners and multilateral organizations including the United Nations, OIC, SCO, D8 and others.
Pakistan's current foreign policy is more economy-oriented than national security and international politics. During US's war against Afghanistan, Pakistan's relationship with the US was of forced freindship when the two nations functioned as allies without a genuine sense of camaraderie, enemies without deep-seated animosity, and partners without a foundation of trust. However, now Pakistan is no longer playing in the hands of Uncle Sam; it is no longer dying to become Ameraca's' more allied ally'. On the contrary, Pakistan is distancing itself from America in the latter's global conflicts, particularly in America's conflict with the emerging superpower, China. Pakistan is also not enthusiastically allied with the US in the latter's support for Ukraine in Russia-Ukraine war. Consequently, Pakistan is no longer being showered with appreciation by America. Rather, White House is often upbrading Pakistan for the latter's pursuit of its own national interests. The latest American punch aganist Pakistan's national interest was inflicted on 18th December, 2024 when America imposed sanctions on four Pakistani companies including National Defence Complex for their alleged involvement in developing Pakistan's ballistic missiles programme alleging Pakistan of contributing to the proliferation or delivery of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). In rebuttle, Pakistan dismissed these allegations and called the US decision to impose these sanctions to be biased and against Pakistan's national interests. Pakistan’s foreign ministry warned in a statement that the sanctions “have dangerous implications for strategic stability of our region and beyond.” It also accused the US of “double standards” for waiving licensing requirements for advanced military technology to other countries.
On the other hand, Pakistan is growing its relationship with Russia despite Russia's invasion of Ukraine that is being backed by the US and European Union. The recent visits of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk to Islamabad on 16 October, 2024 marked the continuation of growing Pakistan-Russia ties in recent times. This extraordinary regional development first drew global attention when Pakistan’s the then-Prime Minister Imran Khan visited Moscow on the eve of Russia’s Ukraine invasion in February 2022. The warming up of Pakistan-Russia ties indicates the changing geopolitical landscape of the region where Pakistan-India enemty has been shaping the regional politics for more than seven decades. Since Pakistan's foreign policy is now focused on economy, Pakistan aims to benefit Russia energy resources. Recently, Pakistan has sealed a deal to purchase Russian oil on slashed price. Russia has also shown interest in helping Pakistan in developing gas pipeline to gey Iranian gas.
Similarly, Pakistan and Central Asia seek to build and promote valuable geo-economic and geo-political links to enhance regional connectivity and prosperity. While South Asia has a huge market for global investors, Central Asia is rich in natural reserves, energy resources, hydrocarbons, coal, natural gas and many more. Its topographical location complements its collaboration with the neighbouring states, especially with Pakistan. Since the last few years, Pakistan and Central Asian governments have been working together to capitalise on these opportunities through appropriate strategies that will provide a productive and secure environment for trans-regional trade and connectivity. “Vision Central Asia” is one of these mutual agreements. It has five pillars and is comprised of domains including economy, trade, defence, regional connectivity and people-to-people connection through cultural exchange and regional integration. Therefore, collaboration with energy-rich Central Asia will help Pakistan meet its energy requirements. the most important Pak-CAR bilateral energy projects are the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline and Central Asia South Asia (CASA)-1000.
The bilateral meeting between the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, and Tajikistan’s President, Emamoli Rahmon, has opened new avenues for cooperation between the two states. Both parties discussed mutual regional interests and emphasised enhancing further cooperation and fully operationalising it. They also ensured the implementation of existing frameworks and the completion of the energy supply project CASA 1000. Sri Lanka has also shown interest in connecting Gwadar port with Colombo port to reach CARs through the trade route of Pakistan.
Pakistan can only access Central Asia through the narrow Wakhan border, and for that, stability in Afghanistan is the first priority. Due to geographical proximity and historical linkages, Pakistan is among Afghanistan’s largest trading partners. Bilateral trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan reached US$ 1,861 million in the fiscal year 2023. Pakistan has also been supporting efforts to leverage Afghanistan’s potential as a regional connectivity hub. Pakistan’s active engagement in connectivity projects including TAPI, TAP, CASA-1000 and Trans Afghan Railway Project is aimed towards this end. However, Afghanistan's failure to cooperate with Pakistan to sever relations with Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan is a bone of contention between the two countries. Pakistan is trying hard to make the Afghan government realise their responsibility to usher an era of peace and prosperity in the Central Asian region for which Afghanistan's withdrawl of support to TTP is an important demand from Pakistan.
The shadow of the Durand Line and cross-border terrorism have led to the frequent closure of border checkpoints. The movement of goods and people has been adversely affected, highlighting the clear economic drawbacks tied to Rawalpindi’s misjudgment of the Taliban. Afghans have always asserted their independence, especially when foreigners intervene. Pakistan should have handled the border issue with more sensitivity to protect its economic interests and maintain ties with the Afghan Taliban.
Another thorn in the relationship between the two neighboring states is the TTP. With the return of the Afghan Taliban in Kabul, the TTP pledged its allegiance to the regime and proclaimed them as a role model. TTP leadership encouraged their fighters to achieve a similar victory against Pakistan as the Afghan Taliban achieved against the United States. Consequently, terror attacks in Pakistan increased by 73 percent in the two years since the Taliban took over Kabul in August 2021 as compared to the same time period before their takeover, with no sign of TTP’s decline in sight.
The TTP now has a more structured central command, an expanded footprint through mergers with smaller groups, and is equipped with U.S. weapons left behind during the withdrawal. As such, it has emerged as a formidable challenge to the Pakistan Army. The change in the operational tactics of the TTP to target the armed forces instead of civilians has further complicated the matter for Pakistan. TTP’s targeting of security personnel, Chinese workers, and Chinese interests has exacerbated the crisis for Pakistan by raising the stakes. Furthermore, the presence of a friendly ruler in Kabul gives TTP an additional advantage to fall back to safety after carrying out attacks in Pakistan.
In order to make Afghanistan comply with Pakistan's demands, the Pakistani establishment and government resorted to expelling millions of Afghan refugees living in Pakistan since Afghanistan-USSR war. Secondly, Pakistani Air-Force struck inside Afghanistan to destroy TTP's hideouts. Thirdly, Pakistan frequently resorts to close the Torkham Border halting trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan as a puniitve measure to make Afghan government withdraw support or accommodation to TTP. However, the Taliban of Afghanistan has still not come to terms with Pakistan. Pakistan needs to use the support of Pushtoon elders of Pakistanfor negotians to decrease differences between Pakistani and Afghan governments.
If tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan continue to rise and the countries are distracted by each other, terror groups like Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) could take the opportunity to expand and carry out terror attacks in the region and other parts of the world. The presence of groups like ISKP, Al-Qaeda, Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and TTP remains a cause of concern for the United States and its allies. A distracted Taliban would not serve U.S. counterterrorism interests.
China would also not prefer a distracted power in Kabul, especially since the presence of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement ETIM in Afghanistan continues to be a security concern for Beijing. The rise in attacks on Chinese projects and Chinese people is as much a result of Pakistan’s weak security apparatus as a lack of cooperation between the Taliban and Pakistan on the issue of terrorism. A lack of cohesion in counterterrorism efforts only serves to strengthen the terrorists. Therefore, a prolonged crisis is not in anyone’s interest.
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