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Zahid Hussain Published April 16, 2025
THE ongoing indirect nuclear talks between America and Iran are inching forward with the two sides agreeing to meet for the next round this week. Both countries described the meeting in Oman as “constructive”.
It was the first high-level engagement between Washington and Tehran since 2018 when Donald Trump, during his first presidency, had pulled the US out of the 2015 nuclear agreement, promising to negotiate a “better deal”.
Last weekend’s meeting, which lasted for over two hours, took place with the two delegations sitting in separate rooms relaying messages through Oman’s foreign minister. While the Iranian delegation is headed by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi America is being represented by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff. The two also spoke very briefly after the meeting. The very fact that the two sides have agreed to meet again is seen as encouraging.
But there’s still a long way to go and hurdles to cross before a deal is possible. President Trump’s announcement of “direct talks” with Iran came during a joint presser at the White House with the visiting Israeli prime minister who has been urging the US to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability through military action. Trump’s offer to talk was mixed with the threat of force. He has repeatedly warned of military strikes.
While willing to talk, Tehran rejected any engagement under coercion. Iran has linked direct talks to the easing of sanctions. Both parties then settled for indirect talks that has helped break some ice and paved the way for the next engagement.
A major reason why the Oman meeting ended on a positive note was that Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff refrained from repeating the president’s threats that Iran would face “great danger” if the talks weren’t successful. “In my opinion, as the first meeting, it was a constructive meeting held in a very peaceful and respectful environment, because no inappropriate language was used,” the Iranian foreign minister said.
No doubt, this is a promising start to extremely complicated negotiations, which demand patience. Both sides have displayed pragmatism by keeping the door open for further engagement. But the onus lies on the Trump administration to lift some of the sanctions on Iran in order to move to direct talks that Witkoff describes as key to concluding a possible deal.
However, there is no sign yet that Trump would agree to suspend sanctions. Tehran has also made it very clear that it would not accept any restrictions on its peaceful nuclear and missile programmes that Trump has been insisting on. Trump had struck downthe 2015 nuclear deal in 2018, claiming it had not curtailed Iran’s missile programme and regional influence. More recently, he threatened Iran with “bombing the likes of which they’ve never seen before”.
Formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear agreement was signed in July 2015. It was a landmark accord reached by Iran and six world powers (P5+1). Besides the US, these countries included Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany.
The JCPOA came into effect in January 2016. As per the deal, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear programme and to allow extensive international inspections of its facilities. This was in exchange for billions worth in sanctions relief, although the US administration maintained curbs on financial transactions, which have deterred global trade with Iran.
One of the reasons that pushed the Obama administration to striking the deal was the fear that Iran had come very close to assembling a nuclear bomb. The agreement prevented this from happening. Iranian leaders, however, insist that they never had any intention of going nuclear.
While the 2015 agreement was largely welcomed by the international community, it came under attack from Israel and Saudi Arabia. Those opposed to it said it showed too much leniency to Iran and asserted that while it could delay things, it would not prevent Tehran from making a bomb in the future. Israel wanted the complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Not surprisingly, Trump’s decision in 2018 to exit the Iran nuclear deal was welcomed by Israel. The withdrawal rendered the JCPOA ineffective, leaving no option for Tehran but to reactivate its uranium enrichment programme.
In early 2023, UN inspectors reported that Iran had enriched trace amounts of uranium to nearly weapons-grade levels, leading to international concern. In a report in February this year, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran had enriched 274.8 kilograms to up to 60 per cent — with 90pc needed to develop nuclear weapons.
President Joe Biden linked Washington’s return to the JCPOA to Iran’s “strict compliance” with the deal. But the talks between Iran and America could not reach any conclusion, with Biden imposing fresh sanctions on Iran.
Over the years, Israel has repeatedly targeted Iran’s nuclear programme but has failed to dismantle it.
The worsening security situation in the Middle East with Israel’s prolonged genocidal war in Gaza and non-stop military strikes in Lebanon and Syria has compelled Iran to strengthen its defences. It is an extremely combustible situation and any American or Israel military action against Iran can trigger a wider conflagration.
Since returning to power, President Trump has been threatening Iran with military action but has also kept the door open for talks. Some back-channel contacts seem to have worked, with the two countries at least agreeing to indirect talks. According to some analysts, Trump’s real bottom line is that Iran must completely dismantle its nuclear programme as well as abandon its missile programme.
Iran has said this time it has come to the table with an open mind but has also made it clear that such US demands would leave it defenceless. Tehran wants to limit the talks to the nuclear issue. It’s certainly a good start, but one is not sure whether it will end up in an agreement, given Trump’s ever-changing stance.
The writer is an author and journalist.
zhussain100@yahoo.com
X: @hidhussain
Published in Dawn, April 16th, 2025
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DAWN EDITORIAL: 16 April 2025
FROM American threats of bombing Iran, things have taken a more positive turn as President Donald Trump’s emissary Steve Witkoff initiated indirect talks on the nuclear issue with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Muscat on Saturday. While the Omanis acted as intermediaries, Mr Witkoff and Mr Araghchi also met briefly, initiating diplomatic first contact after a lengthy pause. Both sides have cautiously welcomed the developments, and the next round will take place this coming weekend. While Mr Trump has not ruled out attacking Iran in case negotiations fail, the parleys signal a welcome shift from the earlier bombast coming out of Washington, which seemed to indicate that war was imminent.
While the developments are no doubt positive, no one should be under the illusion that the US-Iran stand-off has ended. One major reason for this is Mr Trump’s unpredictable nature, although it is also true that the Iranians are unlikely to meet America’s demands that they completely roll back their nuclear programme. Tehran’s support for its regional allies, and limits to its missile programme — the other major American demands — are also red lines. Beyond this, the Iranians seem willing to place limits on their atomic programme in exchange for sanctions relief. US-led sanctions have crippled the Islamic Republic’s economy, and together with internal mismanagement, the average Iranian is enduring considerable financial pain. It is also highly likely that the engagement in Muscat has not gone down well in Tel Aviv. The Israeli regime is keen to see an attack on Iran, but knows it cannot carry it out alone and thus is hopeful of dragging Washington into a new Middle Eastern quagmire. Therefore, Mr Trump needs to resist the Zionist and neocon ‘advice’ to attack Iran if the negotiations fail, and continue the parleys in good faith. An attack on Iran will not be child’s play, and the fire arising from such a misadventure will burn the entire Middle East.
Published in Dawn, April 16th, 2025
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Mahir Ali Published April 16, 2025
ALMOST 70 years ago, the Chinese leader Mao Zedong dismissed the US as a “paper tiger”. He clarified that the reference was strategic. “Regarding [American imperialism] as a whole, we must despise it. But regarding each part, we must take it seriously. It has claws and fangs. We have to destroy it piecemeal.”
That diatribe dates back to 1956, long before Mao himself, by then on his last legs, welcomed Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger to Beijing. Post-Mao, China entered a new phase of economic development, condescendingly encouraged by the US, that indeed turned out to be a great leap forward. It took the capitalist road to rapid growth, attracting foreign investment to a booming economy with a well-educated, low-wage workforce and minimal risk of industrial disruption.
Decades of double-digit growth ensued, and since the start of this century China’s share of global manufacturing has shot up from six per cent to 32pc. Also, the mass production of low-value goods such as cheap garments has been overtaken by the output of cutting-edge hi-tech marvels from smartphones to e-vehicles. During roughly the same period, a bipartisan anti-Beijing trend has accelerated in Washington whereby China is increasingly seen as not just the main economic rival but also the chief strategic adversary.
The first Trump administration’s high tariffs against China did not shift under Joe Biden. This month, after Donald Trump suspended his supposedly irrevocable tariffs on pretty much every country in the world (including a couple of uninhabited islands) after stock markets went into free fall, China was excluded from the reprieve. When Beijing retaliated, Trump pumped up the levy to 145pc, citing its “disrespect”. China has declared that it’s response won’t rise higher than 125pc, because that level suffices as a barrier to almost all American imports.
Then the reliably erratic US president announced an exception for technological products. Soon afterwards it was declared that this was only a temporary exemption and targeted tariffs would follow. It’s not just China that is keen to discover whether there’s any method in the madness. The whole world is on tenterhooks, and Trump says that there is a conga line of foreign leaders desperate to kowtow in order to obtain a deal before the 90-day leeway lapses.
Is the US still a paper tiger to Beijing?
Unlike many of his utterances, that’s not entirely fiction. Many countries would indeed welcome a fair deal, and have neither threatened nor imposed reciprocal tariffs. Most have also not responded to China’s invitation to join it in combating Trump’s “trade tyranny”. That’s only to be expected of the Anglophone allies and Nato acolytes in Europe, but even the countries on President Xi Jinping’s travel itinerary this week — Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia — will be reluctant at this stage to incur the wrath of Washington by openly embracing Beijing as a saviour.
As a repressive one-party state, China is hardly a commendable role model for the Global South. But then, unlike the US, it has rarely claimed to be a bastion of free speech (barring the duplicitous ‘let a hundred flowers bloom, let a hundred school of thoughts contend’ campaign from 1956), whereas Trumpian America today seems keen to emulate Chinese (or Russian/ Hungarian/ Argentinian/ El Salvadoran) authoritarianism.
However, even a cursory observer of China’s trajectory since 1949 (it wasn’t officially recognised by Washington until 30 years later) can see why, despite serving as a handmaiden to US imperialism in the 1970s-80s, bowing to humiliation is not on Beijing’s agenda. Unlike other associates of the US, it cannot be expected to grovel. The century of humiliation preceding the 1949 revolution has figured prominently on the same propaganda agenda that has sought to destroy memories of the massacre on Tiananmen Square in 1989.
There is unlikely to be a near-term shift in China’s often deplorable domestic politics, let alone a great leap forward in redressing the disparities of wealth flowing from capitalism with Chinese characteristics. But it might win plenty more friends if it could step up to fill the international funding gaps that the demise of USAID has created. Saving hundreds of thousands of lives could serve as a reminder that all is not lost — and perhaps there’s much to be gained — when the US opts for isolation and viable alternatives arise.
Viable complaints about China fade into insignificance when the US travels down a similar road. “In appearance it is very powerful but in reality it is nothing to be afraid of,” Mao said in 1956. “It is a paper tiger … unable to stand the wind and the rain.” Mao might not have been aware of it, but Trump’s determination to ignore climate change might doom America well before his administration realises that his predilections could be a gift for China in the longer term.
mahir.dawn@gmail.com
Published in Dawn, April 16th, 2025
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DAWN EDITORIAL: 16 April 2025
REMITTANCES hit an all-time high of nearly $4.1bn last month, breaking the streak of $3bn per month during the July-February period, to everyone’s surprise. The March remittances rose by 37pc from a year ago and were up by 30pc compared to the previous month’s tally of $3.1bn. Cumulatively, the flows from overseas Pakistanis have grown by 33pc in the first three quarters of FY25 to little over $28bn from just above $21bn the previous year. The State Bank now expects to receive $38bn in remittances, up from previous projections of $35bn this year.
The growth in remittances this year is owed to a stable exchange rate, increase in the immigration of tech professionals to the Gulf, and the relative easing of import curbs. The spike in flows last month was further aided by Ramazan and Eid. Even though analysts believe that the latest tally is ‘a blip in the matrix’ due to seasonal factors, it shows the potential of significant boosts to flows in a short period with the right incentives offered to the Pakistani diaspora.
That the growth in remittances has far outpaced the trade deficit during the fiscal year underlines the critical support these flows are providing to the current account. Effectively, remittances have proved to be the most crucial lifeline for Pakistan in recent years, keeping its economy afloat and enabling it to pay its burgeoning import bills as foreign official and private capital flows dry up in spite of the IMF bailout. The share of remittances in GDP for Pakistan has increased from 1pc in 2000 to around 9pc, or more than the share of exports. Encouraged by the sustained growth in cash sent home by Pakistanis abroad, the State Bank hopes to raise its international reserves to $14bn by end-June, despite significant debt payments made this year.
That said, Pakistan also owes a lot to improvement in other economic fundamentals for the upgrade by Fitch Ratings in the long-term foreign currency issuer default rating by one notch to ‘B-’ from ‘CCC+’ with a stable outlook. It earlier had a B- rating with a stable outlook from December 2018 to July 2022.
The rating upgrade is expected to bolster investor confidence — both domestic and foreign. The upgrade will make it easier for Pakistan to access international debt markets as the government plans to raise cash from Chinese and other bond markets later this year to meet its large funding needs that exist in spite of regular debt rollovers and safe deposits from friendly countries. Other global rating agencies are expected to follow suit and upgrade their ratings for Pakistan, deepening investor confidence in its debt. As the State Bank governor said, Pakistan has seen off a period of macroeconomic instability — characterised by high inflation, low reserves and fears of default. Now it is time to build on the gains.
Published in Dawn, April 16th, 2025
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