Rekindling the Indo-US bromance
Syed Muhammad Ali //Tribune: 21 February 2025
Prime Minister Modi was the fourth world leader to visit the White House this past week, after President Trump's landslide victory in the recent American elections. South Asia watchers paid close attention to whether the leaders of the largest democracies in the world would be able to rekindle their bilateral relationship amidst the currently chaotic and fast-evolving geostrategic landscape, which is now being reshaped by a more transactional and punitive American approach to foreign policy.
The American imperative to forge closer strategic ties with India to gain more access to its burgeoning market, and to offset growing Chinese influence in Asia, has seen American Presidents including Obama, Trump and Biden repeatedly roll out the red carpet for Modi, who has now been in power for three consecutive terms.
Modi managed to develop a special bond with Trump 1.0 - described as a budding 'bromance'. Trump has used his personal connection with Modi to woo the American-Indian vote. Modi, on the other hand, also got an image boost due to his "special relationship" with the president of the most powerful county in the world.
Modi and Trump have much in common. They have both harnessed majoritarian sentiments to assume power, and they both represent powerful vested interests which bet on big business to deliver top-down growth. President Trump made no waves when he went to India in 2020 amidst the harsh crackdown on protests against anti-Muslim citizenship legislation enacted under Modi's previous tenure. And the majoritarian ideology of the BJP is not something that will prevent the two countries deepening their strategic embrace this time around either.
During their interaction with the press, Modi said he wants to make 'India great again' (MiGA), and in partnering with Trump's efforts to 'Make America great again' (MAGA), he called for a 'mega-partnership' between their two nations.
However, the deportation of Indian illegal migrants, and the US decision to impose reciprocal tariffs on India remained major issues for the two leaders to contend with during their latest meeting. While Modi was quick to agree to taking back Indian deportees from America, he did try to push back against Trump's plans to use punitive trade measures against India. Trump does seem willing to renegotiate trade terms, if it can lessen the bilateral trade deficit, which is currently in India's favour. Trump wants to increase US energy exports to India and ramp up defence cooperation, which could also pave the way for India buying the exorbitantly priced advanced F-35 fighter jets. Like his predecessor, Trump also wants to create parallel infrastructure to rival China's BRI. He wants to work closely with India to make major investments in ports, railways and undersea cables running from India to Israel and Europe and beyond which would be "one of the greatest trade routes in all of history".
Whether Trump and Modi will be able to boost regional connectivity to outdo BRI investments remains to be seen. China's growing global footprint has already seen smaller South Asian states struggle to maximise national benefits by oscillating between bolstering ties with China and India. Pakistan, however, is much more uneasy about India's growing relations with the US, at a time when its own bilateral relations with the US have withered.
The US is unlikely to want to make significant investments in Pakistan, especially now that the US is no longer in Afghanistan, and is suspicious of Pakistan's increased reliance on China. Pakistan could provide the US a less confrontational arena for great power collaboration, which would be an alternative pathway for contending with Chinese influence in South Asia, rather than trying to prop up India as a regional bulwark against China. However, given the lack of efforts on the part of Pakistan to create opportunities for the US to work with China in Pakistan, we are likely to see the US tighten its strategic embrace of India under Trump, which may compel Pakistan to increase its reliance on China.
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Crusader Trump
The US does have an experience of losing all conventional wars.
Aneela Shahzad // Tribune: 21 February 2025
Last week, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was blunt in announcing at NATO headquarters in Brussels that, in approaching a peace deal for Ukraine, it was unrealistic to think that Ukraine could return to the pre-2014 borders, nor does the US see NATO membership for Kyiv. Later, the US also boosted that neither Europe nor Zelensky will be having a seat on the negotiation table.
That was a shocker. Since the 2014 Euromaidan, the EU in concert with NATO had been adamant on bringing Ukraine to the EU and NATO folds. And for the last three years of war, there has been a relentless supply of funds, arms and ammunitions from European countries, amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars. Double that with the tremendous negative effect on European economies that came with the discontinuation of Russian gas to Europe and their economic isolation from China - all this was being done atthe behest of the US.
And all of a sudden, the US has made Europe irrelevant.
To rub salt in the wound, US Vice President JD Vance, in the Munich Security Conference, directly attacked Europe for being undemocratic, anti-free speech and anti-free thought. In Europe, this is being seen as the far-right attacking the liberal spectrum of politics in Europe. This is a new type of war that Trump and his administration have no experience of winning. And it seems that the increasingly liberal societies of the West, which have been trying to impose secularism and LGBT rights on states around the world, will now find themselves at war from within.
The US does have an experience of losing all conventional wars, and the Trump administration will be adding flavour by losing all other types of wars, like the trade war and ideology wars.
As for the Trade War and MAGA, these were lost ideas from the onset. It's because trade wars cannot be won by sanctions and tariffs; they have to be won by conquering the markets and having more trade partners and allies. They are not won by isolationism and unilateralism. Trump did that with China and other foes in his last term, now he is doing the same with his friends and allies in America and Europe too.
The last time the US made itself great was post-WWII when it gave away $13.3 billion (same as $173.8 billion in 2024) to the UK, France, Germany and other European nations in the Marshal Plan. Letting these war-torn states stand again by rebuilding their industries meant friendly markets for US products; reliable trade and industry partners; strong allies for containment of communism; and formation of NATO. With a little generosity it secured global supremacy.
This time it's different. The world doesn't want US loans anymore; trust in the US dollar has fallen; friends and foes, alike, are feeling that MAGA is proving to be a non-starter and is going to destroy world economies, upending the prevailing world order. The world does not want to do business with a country that has already eaten up $36 trillion of debt, and instead of presenting a payback plan, is threating others with tariffs and sanctions wherever possible. Everybody is up to the neck with this kind of global bullying.
While the US debt totals $36 trillion, Pakistan's totals $0.225 trillion. And while each Pakistani is under a Rs302,000 debt, each American citizen is under a Rs37,332,767 debt. Every day, the US is paying $2.6 billion in debt servicing, yet the IMF only scrutinises smaller states like ours.
As for the ideology wars, Trump has moved in diverse directions. Trump is talking more about God, which means the US politics is no more secular. He is staunchly anti-immigration, which means racial discrimination and hate for foreigners. He has signed a decree for only the binary sex recognition, male and female, which means LGBT movement will be uprooted.
While all of this may seem good to conservative, religious people, especially in the East, it also brings a sense of fear - the fear of a state, with the biggest appetite for wars, turning into a nation of religious zealots, crusading around the world for white, Christian supremacy.
Elon Musk's Nazi-like salute onstage, which went viral on the internet, is also a signal for collaboration with far-right parties and personalities in Europe. Musk has constantly voiced support for German far-right AFD Party leader Alice Weidel, who is anti-migrants, anti-EU and anti-Euro. Other favourites like Tommy Robinson and Greet Wilders are known for their extremist views against migrants and Muslims. So, if the far-right keeps winning in Europe, the new Europe will be more radical and more white.
This reminds us of Samuel Huntington's Clash of Civilizations hypothesis, wherein he augured that future wars would be fought not between countries, but between cultures. He thought that because of social change due to leaps in industrialisation and modernisation, local identities will be diluted and the universal identities in religion will strengthen. Amazingly, we see, in today's globalised world, a social media that is transcending national boundaries and uniting people previously separated by language, traditions and nationalities.
Huntington's thesis was a response to Francis Fukuyama's The End of History and the Last Man, wherein Fukuyama argued that the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union meant a forever US unipolar supremacy and the ultimate triumph of Western liberal democracy.
Time has proven that the unipolar moment has ended; humanity has become weary of repeatedly failed experiments of democracy and capitalism; and liberalism, at its epitome, is preparing to strangle itself.
Trump wants 'to bring God back' and 'religion back to our lives'. He is befriending Putin, the self-proclaimed guardian of the Orthodox church, while he ditches the Western Protestant states. Simultaneously, he is staunchly unified with the extremist far-right Zionist of Israel.
What of Gaza then?
Trump wants both Gaza and the West Bank cleared of Palestinians. And Netanyahu is so pumped up by his support that he wants to 'finish the job' not just on Gaza but also on Iran.
If the world goes the Trump and Netanyahu way, the modern-day Knights Templar can be imagined blowing the trumpets of war, calling humanity to the great Armageddon, raising hell to its brim, and opening its gates, not just on the Gazans, but on the whole of humanity!
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DAWN EDITORIAL: 21 February 2025
THOUGH Donald Trump has not been able to fulfil his promise of ending the Ukraine conflict “24 hours” after taking office, the American president is clearly not interested in pumping more US funds into this war. Moreover, his overtures to Russia — and use of scathing language to target the Ukrainian president — have sent shockwaves through Kyiv and European capitals.
Mr Trump is not a man known to indulge in diplomatic niceties, but the language he has used for the Ukrainian president has been unforgiving. He has termed Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator” and a “moderately successful comedian” intent on keeping the American “gravy train” going. This is as clear a signal as any that the flow of American funds and weapons to Kyiv is coming to an end.
In fact, the Russian foreign minister and his American counterpart met in Riyadh on Tuesday to restart bilateral engagement, which had practically come to a stop under the Biden administration. All this signals that US involvement in the Ukraine conflict will be considerably reduced, if not ended altogether.
In a few days, it will be three years since the Russians invaded Ukraine, with the conflict upending the international order, and reviving the ghosts of the Cold War. It is high time that the war ended, but in a just and equitable manner.
Mr Trump was clearly wrong when he accused Ukraine of starting the war, as it was Moscow that invaded its western neighbour. But relations between the West and Russia had been deteriorating since before the invasion, with Moscow fearing that Nato was getting closer and closer to its borders. The Ukraine conflict has, in fact, turned into a proxy war pitting Nato against Russia; there have been perilous moments where both sides have come close to a direct conflagration. The American president is a major Nato sceptic, which would explain his urgency to wrap up this war.
Reacting to the meeting between Russia and America’s top diplomats in Riyadh, President Vladimir Putin said he is ready to return to the peace process. This resolve should be backed by confidence-building measures. For a start, both sides should commit to an immediate ceasefire, while Moscow needs to recognise Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty; the Soviet Union is now a part of history, and Russia should respect the independence of the ex-Soviet states.
On the other hand, the Nato states cannot afford to treat Russia like a bogeyman and must engage with Moscow in a spirit of mutual respect, working for collective security. It is difficult to say whether Mr Trump’s Ukraine peace initiative will succeed, but it will be very difficult for Kyiv and its European backers to face the Russian military machine without America’s big guns and endless supply of dollars.
Published in Dawn, February 21st, 2025
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DAWN EDITORIAL: 21 February 2025
THERE are losses and then some. The finance ministry’s latest overview of the federally owned state enterprises shows that most SOEs keep haemorrhaging at the expense of taxpayers, the economic infrastructure, and crucial public services such as healthcare, education, clean water supply and sanitation. The report reveals that the aggregate losses of several SOEs, particularly those operating in the power and infrastructure sectors, rose to Rs851bn in FY24, with their total debt surging to Rs9.2tr, nearly equalling the tax revenues collected by the FBR for that year. The losses include government assistance of Rs782bn in subsidies and Rs367bn in grants added to their revenues. Some like the Pakistan Steel Mills are incurring losses, while waiting to be sold or liquidated for the past many years. Others such as the Railways and the national carrier are bleeding just to remain operational. The SOEs’ accumulated losses stand at a colossal Rs5.75tr. Most losses have accrued in the past 10 years alone. Not all SOEs are suffering losses. Some, like those in the business of oil and gas, insurance and power generation made a cumulative profit of Rs820bn.
The statement that the loss-making state enterprises have become a big burden on the budget and a major risk to fiscal stability does not even begin to capture the full threat that these SOEs pose to an already teetering economy. The government subsidies, grants, loans, and equity injections totalling Rs1.59tr — equal to 13pc of the federal budget receipts and significantly greater than the federal development programme — are enough to show the monsters they have become. Multiple half-hearted, botched attempts in the past to restructure essential and sell off non-essential SOEs underline the lack of political will to fix or part with them because of the easy, large rents they produce for politicians and bureaucrats. The way the privatisation of PIA was structured last year to keep out serious bidders from the process, and the failed maiden attempt to sell off its majority share reflects the entrenched financial interests of both politicians and the bureaucracy in maintaining the status quo to keep drawing rent out of the SOEs. But for how long? With government resources thinning by the day and pressure by multilateral lenders increasing, we are left with no option but to reconsider our policy on SOEs. It is only a matter of time before these would have to be liquidated, sold, or fixed.
Published in Dawn, February 21st, 2025
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AI revolution : reflecting on the opportunities and challenges
Concretely, some 300 million jobs could be affected in the years to come by the development of AI.
Nicolas Galey // Tribune: 21 February 2025
On February 10 and 11, a major gathering brought together in Paris more than 1,000 representatives of governments from five continents, international organisations, business circles, artists, academics and researchers and NGOs to discuss a major topic and challenge for our time: how will we - individuals, governments, international organisations, businesses, civil societies - face the extraordinary opportunities and changes that AI offers us, today and in the future.
The need for this Summit convened by President Emmanuel Macron stems from an observation: we are facing a fundamental, intellectual, industrial and technological revolution that carries the potential for a profound paradigm shift in our societies, in our relationships with knowledge, work, information, culture and language. Concretely, some 300 million jobs could be affected in the years to come by the development of AI. As President Macron stated: AI is "a tremendous technological and scientific revolution for progress and in the service of progress. So, it is first of all, obviously, technology, science, the improvement of lots of research, transformation of many sectors, but our conviction is that it must be done in the service of humanity, and therefore to live better".
AI is not a neutral technology. It can offer the best and also generate risks and raise legitimate concerns, such as the reliability of information, the protection of individual rights, the very concept of human creativity, among other questions, many of which are not precisely known yet. AI is therefore a political and civic issue that requires close international dialogue between world's governments, researchers, legal experts, intellectuals, businesses and civil society.
France wished to gather all these actors to reflect on these essential questions in order to pursue the momentum initiated by previous summits in the UK and the Republic of Korea. With more than 750 start-ups in the AI sector - the largest number in Europe - and more than 36,000 people employed in this sector, France was all the more destined to host this Summit. France also has 9 AI clusters based in different cities and the largest number of AI laboratories in Europe. In 2024, 3.3 billion euros were dedicated to AI in all sectors combined, which represented 700 projects. Moreover, 360 million euros were dedicated to training and research. As a result, France has 40,000 talented data scientists specialising in AI and this number is expected to increase to 100,000 trained per year.
Beyond its tech ecosystem, France was keen to highlight one priority: think together about how the world will succeed in the AI shift and enable AI to fulfil its initial promise of progress and emancipation within a framework of common trust. In this regard, the Paris Summit aimed at creating a common dynamic for reflection and action over the long term, around three main objectives and principles:
1) Allow equal AI access to as many people as possible so that everyone benefits from it and develops new ideas to realise its full potential.
2) Jointly and imperatively lead the two major transitions of our time: the environment and technology. While AI must play its full part in combating global warming and preserving ecosystems, it is currently on an unsustainable trajectory in terms of energy. The latest forecasts suggest that as early as 2026, energy needs for the AI sector will be ten times higher than in 2023. In order to cope with this environmental challenge, the French government has launched a coalition bringing together around 30 companies with the aim of promote a more resource-efficient framework.
3) Collectively build an effective and inclusive AI governance system not limited to questions of ethics and security. We certainly need to discuss issues such as the protection of fundamental freedoms, intellectual property or access to data. But we also need to bring everyone around the table to discuss topics such as global AI governance or the fight against market concentration. In addition to state actors, private actors and civil society must be included in order to define a common architecture for international AI governance.
In line with these challenges, President Macron has announced 109 billion euros of investments in AI in the coming years, in France essentially, to which both French and foreign investors, public and private, will contribute. Priority will be given to the construction of data centres. As many as 35 sites throughout France are ready to host data centres.
In this regard, several announcements have been made:
= As part of a joint Framework Agreement between France and the UAE, investments of up to 50 billion euros are planned, supported by the MGX fund, with the aim of creating a 1 GW campus dedicated to AI.
= Canadian fund Brookfield is planning an investment of 20 billion euros by 2030, including 15 billion euros for the construction of new data centres.
= American company Digital Reality announced an investment of more than 5 billion euros to finance data centres in the Paris region and the city of Marseille.
= British company Fluidstack has entered into a partnership with the French government to deploy the world's largest supercomputer for AI with an initial investment of 10 billion euros.
French companies are fully part of this revolution; the leading Mistral AI start-up company will deploy its first data centre in the Paris region.
Many other commitments were made during the Paris AI Summit by French (Eclairion, Iliad, Sesterce), American (Amazon, Apollo, Equinix, Prologis), Swedish (Evroc) and Japanese (Telehouse) groups.
At the institutional level, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reaffirmed the EU's ambitions in developing AI, stating the EU's aims to mobilise 200 billion euros as part of the "EU AI Champions Initiative". Around 60 major industrial groups have announced their involvement in this initiative, including Airbus, L'Oréal and Mercedes. Tech groups such as Mistral AI and Spotify will also be involved. As President Macron said this Summit exemplifies the reawakening of the AI European strategy.
In France, the public investment bank BpiFrance announced a contribution of 10 billion euros over 4 years for the development of AI.
France is proud and happy to have contributed to this objective which was concluded by the signing of a declaration for an "open", "inclusive" and "ethical" AI by some 60 countries as well as by the EU and the African Union Commission.
With its technology and its talented researchers, scientists, entrepreneurs and representatives of civil society, Pakistan has a major role to play in this collective work. I am pleased to know that representatives of Pakistani civil society - such as Nighat Dad, President of the Digital Rights Foundation - participated in the Paris Summit.
Following on from the Summit, the French Embassy in Pakistan wishes to engage with Pakistani partners to contribute to the achievement of the great ambitions displayed by the hundreds of participants gathered in Paris who shared very rich and substantial discussions, with one essential priority: ensuring that the extraordinary revolution benefits every human being, their progress, their individual creativity and freedom.
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