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DAWN EDITORIAL: 20 February 2025
AND the endless cycle of violence continues. The brutal killing on Tuesday night of seven Punjab-bound passengers in Barkhan district marks yet another tragic episode in Balochistan’s troubled history. That armed men could stop multiple vehicles on a major highway, methodically check identity cards, and kill innocent travellers speaks volumes about the state of security in Pakistan’s largest province. More troubling still is the fact that this has become a disturbing pattern that has claimed dozens of lives in recent months. Last August, 23 travellers were pulled from vehicles and shot in Musakhail. In May, seven barbers from Punjab were killed near Gwadar. April saw separate attacks in Noshki and Kech. Each incident follows the same horrifying script — armed men targeting civilians based on their provincial identity. While the prime minister and Balochistan chief minister have issued strong statements after the attack, the fundamental question remains: why does this cycle of violence continue unabated?
Much of the answer lies in the decades of neglect that has left Balochistan’s people disillusioned and marginalised. Despite being a resource-rich province, it has seen very little of the development that has over the years transformed other parts of the country. Basic infrastructure remains poor, educational opportunities are limited, and economic prospects for young Baloch are dim. This deep-seated deprivation has created fertile ground for extremist elements to exploit. And still, the political response to the situation has been tepid at best. Political parties are quick to condemn violence in statements, but show little genuine commitment to addressing Balochistan’s basic grievances. The province appears to matter only during election season, when grand promises are made and promptly forgotten. What steps has the ruling PPP and PML-N coalition in Balochistan taken for any lasting solution? And what have the Baloch nationalist parties done? Pakistan’s political leadership must demonstrate through actions, not words, that they have not forsaken Balochistan. The province needs not just enhanced security measures — though these are crucial — but a complete rethinking of how the federation engages with the province. This means genuine political dialogue, substantial investment in human development, and sincere efforts to bring Baloch youth into the national mainstream. Without addressing these core issues, we risk watching this tragic cycle repeat itself, with more innocent lives lost to senseless violence.
Published in Dawn, February 20th, 2025
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Published in DAWN: 20 February 2025
Source: Reuters
China will always be Latin America’s “trustworthy” friend and partner, its foreign minister told his Bolivian counterpart, as Beijing looks to improve its foothold in a region historically under the US sphere of influence.
“Latin America is the home of the Latin American people, and is not any country’s ‘backyard’,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said during a meeting at the United Nations on Tuesday, according to a statement from his ministry.
China wants to “continuously elevate the China-Bolivia strategic partnership”, Wang told Bolivia’s FM Celinda Sosa.
Bolivia, which established diplomatic ties with Beijing in 1985, is among many countries in South America that have bonded economically with China through debt and investment.
The resource-rich country owes China, the world’s biggest bilateral lender, over $1.7 billion according to World Bank data.
Chinese firms have invested a further $6bn, statistics from the American Enterprise Institute think tank show, mostly in Bolivia’s metals, energy and transport sectors.
US foreign direct investment in Bolivia stands at around $430 million, US State Department data shows, predominantly in the oil and gas and manufacturing sectors.
The US and China look set to go toe-to-toe in Central and South America over US President Donald Trump’s second term, with Chinese investments in the region, particularly in energy and infrastructure, challenging US influence.
Trump took little time in taking Panama to task over the Central American state’s ties to China after taking office, dispatching Secretary of State Marco Rubio with a message to end China’s influence over the Panama Canal or face US action.
Panama’s President Jose Raul Mulino later said his country would not renew its membership of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative, to Beijing’s chagrin.
Trump had refused to rule out the use of military force to take back the Panama Canal in the run-up to Rubio’s visit.
“China supports Latin American countries in defending their sovereignty, independence and national dignity,” Wang said.
He also congratulated Bolivia on becoming a member of Brics — a group of developing nations founded by Brazil, Russia, India and China to rival a Western-dominated world order. The group has since grown to also include South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Trump has repeatedly warned the Brics not to challenge the dominance of “the mighty US dollar”, and threatened members with a 100 per cent tariff “if they want to play games with the dollar”.
But Brazil last week joined the ranks of Latin American states to back down to one of Trump’s demands — nixing plans to advance a common currency while it holds the Brics presidency, lest it triggers a backlash from Trump.
China, Brazil’s largest export market, buys almost $70bn more from Latin America’s biggest economy than the US does, according to UN Comtrade data, but still does not want to put the $37bn worth of goods it does sell to the American market on the line.
Trump has not held back on threatening to up-end trade ties with the region while China looks to cultivate deeper strategic partnerships with individual Latin American nations, offering the region an alternative pole of economic support.
He has also threatened Mexico and Colombia with punitive trade remedies if they did not take stronger action to curb illegal immigration into the US.
Mexico agreed to reinforce its northern border with 10,000 National Guard members to stem the flow of illegal migrants and drugs.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro backed down from a decision to turn away US military planes carrying deported migrants, pulling it back from the brink of a trade war with its biggest export market.
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Saudi role in strategic conflict resolution
Adeela Naureen
Tribune: 20 February 2025
As reported by Arab News, "US President Donald Trump will see his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia for their first meeting since taking office in January." This was preceded by an almost 90-minute phone conversation between Trump and Putin. It may be noted here that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was the first foreign head of state that Trump called after taking office.
The role of MBS as a moderator in strategic conflict resolution has gradually put Saudi Arabia onto the center stage of global politics. Even President Putin acknowledged the Saudi role in 2023, as he thanked MBS for helping to organise the biggest prisoner swap between the US and Russia since the Cold War.
Earlier, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud made a historic state visit to Russia in October 2017, marking the first-ever official trip by a Saudi monarch to Russia. The visit symbolised a significant thaw in the Saudi-Russian relations, which had been strained for decades due to Cold War rivalries, differences over Syria, and competition in global energy markets.
The visit highlighted a pragmatic shift in Saudi foreign policy under King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who sought to balance relations with major world powers - the US, China and Russia - amid the perceived US retreat under Trump. The visit underscored Saudi Arabia's move towards a multipolar foreign policy, reducing dependence on the US while engaging rivals like Russia and China.
The Biden administration's criticism of Saudi Arabia over human rights and oil policies did not help much and pushed Riyadh closer to Moscow and Beijing, echoing the strategic diversification initiated during King Salman's 2017 outreach.
MBS has facilitated cooperation between Russia and the US during the 2020 oil price crisis triggered by Covid-19. Saudi Arabia and Russia negotiated production cuts, with Trump engaging directly to stabilise global markets. This economic interdependence created a platform for the US-Russia dialogue.
MBS cultivated close ties with Trump through high-profile arms deals and strategic partnerships. This rapport allowed him to suggest diplomatic overtures to Putin, leveraging Trump's preference for personal diplomacy. Saudi Arabia's neutral stance in the US-Russia tensions enabled MBS to act as a discreet mediator.
Saudi investments in American and Russian markets also provided leverage. MBS could incentivise cooperation by aligning economic deals with diplomatic goals, such as energy market stability or arms sales.
There is also a humanitarian angle to the Saudi role in strategic conflict resolution, especially of the casualties of the war in Ukraine and the massive displacement of women and children from the country. This war has led to almost half a million soldiers killed so far. Over 6.5 million Ukrainians have fled the country, with the majority to Europe. Millions suffer from trauma, destroyed infrastructure and economic collapse.
Trump's announcement of KSA to be a venue of his meeting with Putin has drawn a mixed response from the EU and Western allies. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas has clearly stated that the backdoor deal will be a 'dirty deal', while Lithuanian Defense Minister has threatened that in case Europe and Ukraine were kept out of this deal, then Europe will consider developing its own economic, diplomatic and military alliance.
As reported by Reuters, the EU representatives were instigated by Trump's Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth who told NATO military allies that Ukraine's hoped-for return to its 2014 borders is an "unrealistic objective", and that the US does not believe that Kyiv's NATO membership is a "realistic outcome" of a negotiated end to Russia's three-year war on Ukraine.
Saudi Arabia's balancing act reflects its ambition to wield influence as a neutral mediator while safeguarding its economic and strategic interests. With such polarised stands and policy challenges, the role being played by MBS has become a significant step in international diplomacy and strategic conflict resolution. The world cannot afford wars and conflict to satisfy egos of neocons and old-fashioned European guardians of the so-called democratic world.
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The myth of Central Asia's trade potential
Inam ul Haque //TRIBUNE: 20 February 2025
This write-up analyses the much-touted 'trade potential of Central Asia'. But first an AI Overview of Gwadar Port (GP) and Chabahar (CPP). GP, by 2045, is designed to handle 400 million metric ton (mmt) cargo annually, through 100 berths. By comparison, CPP - once fully operationalised - will have 82 mmt cargo handling capability. China's Overseas Port Holding Company (COPHC) operates GP. Gwadar even presently handles containerised and bulk cargo. The naturally deep Gwadar seaport, with 20-meter-deep approach channel, will eventually handle vessels of up to 50,000 deadweight tonnage (DWT), container ships of 100,000 DWT, and bulk carriers of up to 200,000 DWT. It is the only port in the region that would handle 200,000 DWT supertankers, compared to Chabahar's 20,000 tons. GP's natural depth entails low maintenance costs in dredging, etc. Gwadar's slated yearly capacity equals the annual volume of all ports in India.
The new and large Gwadar International Airport significantly boosts GP's trade and commercial potential. Gwadar Master Plan (GMP), partly executed under CPEC, includes development of Gwadar, the Port, airport, corresponding transport system, East Bay Expressway, besides economic and social development in Gwadar Free Zone. GMP has many sub-projects i.e. transport connectivity, daily production of around 12,500 tons of 'raw copper', power generation, railways, seawater desalination, etc.
Chabahar, by comparison, will have 10 berths, is less deep, needs extensive dredging, requires passage through narrow Gulf, has comparatively less developed infrastructure and facilities, and offers comparatively low handling capacity, especially for larger vessels. It is, however, integral to Iran's geo-strategic ambitions, especially in connivance with India, which is developing it as a commercial hub for trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia. However, Indian trade via CPP bypassing Gwadar is, relatively speaking, expensive. CPP, nonetheless, is likely to boost India's economy, and trade with Europe and Russia using the 'International North South Transport Corridor'.
CPP's cited connectivity is 'presently' better than GP in restive Balochistan. However, GP lies at the terminus of 21st Century Maritime Silk Road under CPEC, connecting Central Europe, North Sea, Mediterranean Sea and the Chinese coast.
And now central Asia's 'true' trade potential. Pakistan's trade with Central Asian Republics (CARs) is roughly between $400 and $500 million annually. Pakistan's bilateral trade with Uzbekistan was $145 million in 2020-21; it crossed $28 million (2022) with Azerbaijan and was almost $ 91 million for the first eight months in 2024; recorded at $7 million with Kyrgyzstan for the same period in 2024; was $0.735 million with Turkmenistan for the same period; remained $36.46 million (2023) with Tajikistan; and was over $139 million with Kazakhstan during 2022-23. In 1995, Pakistan signed a 'Quadrilateral Traffic in Transit Agreement (QTTA)' with China, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan to facilitate transit trade through Gwadar.
Pakistan-CAR trade potential can increase to over $5 billion in the next two years or so, but challenges remain. The main hurdles are infrastructure deficiencies; sub-optimal transportation networks and connectivity; border crossings issues; complex trade regulations and bureaucratic hurdles; security concerns, including those related to terrorism; and difficulty in visa processing for businessmen and drivers.
So, firstly, what is the assessed true trade potential of CARs? During 2022, the intra-regional trade 'among CARs' was nearly $10 billion, expanding 2.5 times during the last ten years, with Kazakhstan emerging as the lead trading partner. By comparison, Pakistan's trade with China only, in 2022, was $17.8 billion; with the United States $6.1 billion; with Saudi Arabia over $5 billion; and with the UK over $2 billion. Pakistan's total international trade in 2023 was $35.8 billion.
Secondly, in the energy sector, Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) Project to import gas from the Galkynysh gas field in Turkmenistan is touted as the bedrock of Pakistan's energy security. TAPI will yearly transport up to 33 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas, for 30 years. Once monetised at today's value, this makes around $184 million, if the pipeline, costing $10 billion is developed. TAPI is marketed as critical for gas availability, given Pakistan's depleting reserves.
Thirdly, the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) Project for 500 KV power transmission to Pakistan is still on the drawing board. CASA (Central Asia South Asia) - 1000 Project, a joint venture between Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan and Pakistan, costing $1.2 billion, to transport 1,000 MW surplus electricity from Tajikistan/Kyrgyzstan to Pakistan/Afghanistan (300 MW) during May-September, stands suspended after Taliban assumed power in Afghanistan.
If you put it all this together, the CAR trade potential ($10 billion globally) and their bilateral trade with Pakistan ($400-$500 million) is not disproportionately lucrative, given their smaller populations, not very developed industrial output, and their historic orientation towards Russia/Turkey for global trade.
Although the three cited energy projects seem 'critically attractive', these are plagued with geopolitics and economic pitfalls and lack cooperative regional framework. With the moneys needed for TAPI, CASA and TAP projects, Pakistan can and should upgrade its dated electricity distribution system, the main bottleneck in electricity transmission to consumers. With completion of CPEC power projects, Pakistan's current production capacity, at 49,270 MW, already outstrips peak demand of around 29,000 MW in summers. The is not withstanding the solar power generation that is currently 10-15 GW and is projected to reach up to 60% in the electricity generation mix by 2030. With abundant and cheaper electricity, aggressive exploration and development of gas fields and LNG imports, gas shortages can be overcome.
Therefore, it is time to look dispassionately at the whole gamut of, and fascination with, CAR trade potential. This is not to say that exploring and expanding ties with these brotherly Muslim countries be halted. Contrarily, such links be deepened, while keeping expectations aligned to realities.
From geopolitical standpoint, Indian investment in CPP and Chinese in Gwadar generate, perceptively at least, a sense of "strategic encirclement". China dreads encirclement by the US, India by China, and Pakistan by India. This, according to scholars like Neil Padukone, prompts 'containment strategies'. India cloaks its anti-Pakistan, anti-China maneuvers, as trade with Central Asia, access to Afghanistan's Hajigak iron ore and Afghan natural resources.
In the long run, the India's pipeline-to-road-to-rail-to-sea-to-road shipment costs through CPP would be prohibitively expensive, compared to direct transit through Pakistan. One more compelling reason for Modi to relent!
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Russo-US thaw
TRIBUNE EDITORIAL: 20 February 2025
Russia and the United States did some necessary diplomatic-correction by restoring their respective missions back to full strength, in an earnest understanding to work out a thaw over Ukraine. The deal was materialised in Riyadh with a tactical consensus to keep intricate details in clouds, as they move on to rework their once estranged relationship to new vistas of cooperation. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his counterpart Sergei Lavrov, nonetheless, were seen preparing ground for a likely summit of leadership as Europe kept its fingers crossed in utter surprise over the speed of rapprochement between the conventional adversaries. The fact that the Diriyah Palace in Saudi Arabia is the theatre of talks has sent some right vibes hinting at the nod from Middle East's most-powerful man, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, for a patch-up in the making.
Donald Trump's initiative to reach out to Vladimir Putin has literally led to the end of Russia's isolation. Moscow had faced the music since its invasion of Crimea and later the aggression on Ukraine with crippling Western sanctions. The change of heart at White House has now put the American allies in a quandary as they are unsure of what would transcribe from the talks, with Kiev already in the woods. A disappointed France has called for an emergency meeting of allies in Paris in a bizarre attempt to pressurise Washington to turn lenient on Ukraine. With Trump having laid bare his conditions for Europe to dig deep into their pockets, if they want to resuscitate NATO and erect a proactive defence strategy, there is an emerging policy mismatch between the US and the EU.
Trump's landmark policy shift towards the Kremlin and, likewise, Beijing indicates his desire for a new world order sans conventional warfare. Rubio and Lavrov have set the ball rolling by saying that "incredible opportunities" are there and "hopefully will be good for the world too…". And now with Ukraine excluded from being a direct party to the talks in Riyadh, the sovereign rights of the war-stricken country are up for a toss.
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LONDON: A group which tracks anti-Muslim hate across the UK said on Wednesday it had received the highest ever number of reports in 2024, blaming online platforms and AI for much of the increase.
“The rise in anti-Muslim hate is unacceptable and this is deeply concerning for the future,” said Tell MAMA’s director Iman Atta.
“We have had the largest volume of cases reported to us … since we started our work in 2012,” she added. The group received reports of 6,313 anti-Muslim hate cases in 2024 — most of them online. It was able to verify 5,837. This compared with 4,406 reports the previous year, of which 3,767 were verified.
Assault cases rose 73 percent with 99 recorded in 2023 and 171 in 2024, while there were 2,197 offline cases of abusive behaviour reported to Tell MAMA in 2024. Numbers have spiked since the start of the Gaza conflict in October 2023, and the murders of three young girls in Southport in July 2024.
False claims that the Southport killings were carried out by a Muslim immigrant went viral on social networks in the early days after the attacks. They helped trigger the UK’s worst riots in decades when mobs attacked mosques and immigrant shelters.
Published in Dawn, February 20th, 2025
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