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Muhammad Amir Rana // DAWN: 09 February 2025
DURING his recent official trip to China, President Asif Zardari reaffirmedPakistan’s commitment to the strategic partnership with that country.
In his meetings with Chinese leaders, especially President Xi Jinping, the Pakistani leader emphasised new avenues of cooperation under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). His visit came at a critical time when terrorism and security challenges within Pakistan are testing the strength of bilateral ties.
The visit holds particular significance as President Zardari’s party is in power in Balochistan and Sindh, the two provinces where Chinese nationals have been targeted in recent terrorist attacks. The attacks have raised grave concerns and have put pressure on the government to ensure the safety of Chinese nationals in the country. While it is true that it is the establishment that manages security matters, the provincial governments are responsible for law enforcement and policing. Their cooperation is crucial to addressing the threat.
The priority is to attract more Chinese investment, whether under the banner of CPEC 2.0 or other bilateral economic projects. While Pakistan’s strategic and defence ties with Beijing are strong, the aim is to strengthen these without compromising its foreign policy stance, particularly with regard to its ties with the US and the West. However, Chinese investors are becoming more hesitant to invest here because of security risks, debt repayment uncertainty, bureaucratic red tape, and what they see as the Western leanings of the bureaucracy.
Ensuring the safety of Chinese nationals in Pakistan is critical to maintaining mutual trust. Unrelenting security threats have strained bilateral ties, underscoring the need for Pakistan to instal effective measures to reassure China of its commitment to safeguarding its interests.
Pakistan is struggling to balance its relationships with both China and the West.
Time and again, the two countries are seen reaffirming their commitment to strengthening economic and security cooperation. But progress on overcoming the hurdles has been slow, with the Pakistani establishment often making commitments that may not be entirely practical where implementation is concerned.
To give an example, in the aftermath of two incidents last year in which Chinese citizens lost their lives, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi agreed to put in place a joint security strategy with China. This agreement was reached during a meeting with Chinese ambassador Jiang Zaidong after an incident in Karachi in which two Chinese nationals were injured in a shooting by a security guard.
However, subsequent national and international media reports suggested that such a joint security mechanism might not be viable, as Pakistan does not allow foreign troops on its soil except for joint military exercises or related activities. To appease China, Pakistan has intensified its counterterrorism efforts and crackdown on the insurgencies in Balochistan and KP. However, significant security challenges persist.
Moreover, the specifics of the proposed security arrangement are hardly clear. What does China want — direct protection for its citizens, an inner-circle security set-up, or a joint effort that would involve security personnel from both countries? Additionally, who are the Chinese security officials involved? Are they private contractors or members of the regular security apparatus? All this remains ambiguous.
It was evident that China has actively pursued the development of such a mechanism. But more clarity is needed from Pakistan. While China and Pakistan already maintain deep security cooperation at multiple levels — bilaterally, under the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and through special security arrangements for CPEC — its multi-layered collaborations face challenges.
During President Zardari’s visit to China, the interior minister, who was part of the delegation, agreed to enhance intelligence sharing and deepen counterterrorism cooperation in a meeting with his counterpart, Minister of Public Security Qi Yanjun. This meeting carried particular significance. It came on the heels of reports alleging that Mr Naqvi had attended an anti-China event in the US, which the minister later denied. This incident is perceived as another challenge in promoting trust and confidence between the two countries.
China has never objected to Pakistan’s functional relations with the West and understands that this country has maintained a long-standing bilateral relationship with the US. In fact, Pakistan’s ties with the US have, at times, even served Beijing’s interests — for instance, in facilitating a secret meeting between Zhou Enlai and Henry Kissinger in the 1970s. However, Beijing’s concerns stem from different factors. China does not want Islamabad to leverage its relationship with Beijing while simultaneously managing its ties with Washington, particularly when US-Pakistan relations are strained.
The Chinese perceive Mr Naqvi as being closely aligned with Pakistan’s military establishment rather than being an integral part of the civilian government. If Mr Naqvi was in Washington, D.C., during President Donald Trump’s inauguration, they perceive it in a different context — speculating that Pakistan seeks to maintain financial supply lines, particularly through the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Their primary concern is that Pakistan’s dependence on international financial institutions affects CPEC in multiple ways, from loan repayments to maintaining project secrecy.
Pakistan is struggling to balance its relationships with both China and the West. Some close advisers within the military establishment, including former diplomats and generals, continue to advocate for aligning more closely with China, arguing that China’s rise differs from that of the Soviet Union. However, the establishment has yet to fully assess the long-term costs and implications of relying on a single global power — particularly in view of the question of how such a relationship would function in strategic, political, and economic cooperation.
This equation is further complicated by Pakistan’s India-centric security doctrine, which is also grappling with the challenge of integrating the Taliban regime into its broader strategic framework. Despite these complexities, the prime minister and planning minister remain optimistic that China will initiate work on two key mega projects — Karakoram Highway Phase Two and ML-1 — this year.
The writer is a security analyst.
Published in Dawn, February 9th, 2025
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Abbas Nasir // DAWN: 09 February 2025
THE discourse on democracy in the West — in particular — is self-congratulatory, and other systems that have delivered hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, hunger, illness, illiteracy and constant want are looked upon with disdain, suspicion, even derision.
For all my life, I have been a firm believer in democracy as the only viable system of governance which is rules-based and ensures participatory politics, inclusion and safeguards of the rights of the many. This was the theory at least. Of late, dozens of example of flawed democracy have shaken — all but shattered — my faith in the system.
When US President Donald Trump announced his Gaza ethnic cleansing plan from the White House podium, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stood next to him with a smirk affixed to his face, the international outrage was only directed at what Trump’s words represented.
It was a few days later that someone pointed out on X that these words were uttered by a convicted felon as he was feting a man wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of crimes against humanity that is war crimes.
And if this was ironical, even more so was the fact that ‘democratic Europe’, many of whose leaders have often been uncomfortable with the manner in which the US has bulldozed its way through world affairs, quietly held out guarantees to Israel that their leader should not fear arrest to face war crimes charges as he flew over Greek, Italian and French air space en route to Washington, D.C.’s Andrews Air Force Base.
From African dictators to Serbia’s Slobodan Milosevic (who died in his cell in The Hague) to Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic and military chief Ratko Mladic, all must wonder what they did wrong to be arrested and hauled before the International Criminal Court or tribunals to be tried for war crimes, when Netanyahu is feted in the White House and assured of ‘no arrest’ if his plane were to land anywhere in Europe.
Not just that. The honoured guest smiled on as his host publicly committed to the ethnic cleansing of Gaza in a so-called plan that one Israeli commentator called the coming true of a … dream of the far right of the apartheid state. All international law experts and human rights groups said any such move would be tantamount to ethnic cleansing, even genocide.
Trump apologists in the US quickly started spinning his plan as ‘out of the box’ thoughts to find a solution to a long-standing issue. There was some back-pedalling by the White House spokesperson and the secretary of state, both of whom said the president was misunderstood and he didn’t mean for the Palestinians to be relocated permanently. This, when the president used the word ‘permanently’ too.
On the conclusion of his visit to Israel and a quick in and out of occupied Gaza, presidential envoy Steve Witkoff had said it would take 10-15 years to clear the rubble and unexploded ordnance from the Strip before its rebuilding could start. What was the implication of this ‘assessment’, if not relocation?
The Gaza forced expulsion plan has been the subject of a think tank’s commissioned study and a ministerial report, both of which have been discussed in the Israeli cabinet. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, said exactly the same last year as the president has proposed now.
To property developers Trump, Kushner and Witkoff, Gaza is real estate worth drooling over, and its two million Palestinian inhabitants, the rightful owners of the land, no more than an inconvenience. This is no less than a godsend for the Israeli premier who, before Oct 7, 2023, was facing corruption charges that many Israeli legal experts thought would not only see him ejected from office but also land him in a prison cell.
Both Trump and Netanyahu are not freaks but products of a flawed democratic order where the hard right’s capture of the narrative allows it to manipulate public opinion to its advantage. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán is another glaring example. He has been in power for 15 years and is the longest-serving prime minister of his country and has completely brought all state institutions, including the judiciary, under his thumb.
The problem with many of us commentators and aspirational democrats is that we see world systems through the tainted Western lens that downplays their own flaws and development and innovation in societies such as the Chinese today and the Soviet Union in years gone by.
Reverting to the Middle East crisis, there were always going to be three possible outcomes of the Palestinian struggle for freedom. The first was a viable two-state solution, which would have meant concessions by Israel that it has been unwilling to make. The second could have been ‘one state’, with equal rights and dignity for all citizens. One can also see how Israel would recoil from it, as apartheid is the cornerstone of the Zionist state.
The third and what should be called the ‘final solution’ is what is being proposed now. The expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza (announced already) in the first phase and annexation of the West Bank and mass expulsion of up to a million Palestinians from there. Yes, it is called ethnic cleansing, which is a war crime.
It is the US and Israeli ‘democracies’ proposing this, despite the protestations of their democratic yet ineffectual European allies. Any such move would turn the (despotic) regional Arab nations from being US allies, who have peace deals or potential deals with Israel, into ‘front-line resistance states’, as Palestinian politician Marwan Barghoutiexplicitly warned and former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki bin Feisal also suggested to CNN.
The driver for the Arab states may well be one of self-preservation, because of the likelihood of explosive repercussions of a ‘forced relocation’, but as long as the Palestinians can get some justice, all else is unimportant.
The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
abbas.nasir@hotmail.com
Published in Dawn, February 9th, 2025
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DAWN EDITORIAL
SOME of the foremost authorities on environmental issues converged in Islamabad this past week to talk about the urgent nature of the climate crisis in Pakistan. Alongside these experts at DawnMedia’s Breathe Pakistan conference, policymakers and jurists, too, laid out both the scale of the challenge and the action required to surmount it.
Pakistan faces what Supreme Court Justice Mansoor Ali Shah calls a “dual injustice” — bearing a disproportionate burden of climate impacts while lacking the structural capacity to respond. The conference’s outcomes were sobering. Pakistan needs $40-50bn annually until 2050 for climate adaptation, yet current flows amount to barely one-eighth of that.
The World Bank’s climate chief, Valerie Hickey, highlighted that while 70pc of global climate finance goes to mitigation, Pakistan’s pressing need is adaptation. More concerning still, less than 20pc of total climate finance reaches the Global South, where it is needed most.
Some bright spots emerged. Punjab has allocated Rs100bn for climate resilience and Rs10bn specifically for smog mitigation. KP’s forests serve as a carbon sink, removing half of Pakistan’s carbon emissions. The centre’s Uraan Pakistan initiative promises to integrate climate resilience into energy and development planning. But these efforts, while laudable, are dwarfed by the scale of the challenge. The outcome of inaction is already visible. We lost 97 school days to climate disruptions in 2023-24.
The Indus, Pakistan’s lifeline, is now the world’s second-most plastic-polluted river. Air pollution alone causes 128,000 deaths annually, reducing life expectancy by 3.9 years and costing the economy billions. By 2050, nearly half of Pakistan’s agricultural land could become unsuitable for farming.
The conference crystallised three imperatives. First, climate finance must be restructured. The finance minister’s call for more predictable, flexible, and grant-based support reflects the frustration with current mechanisms. Second, regional cooperation is essential. Pakistan’s initiative to engage with India on transboundary air pollution is a promising start. Third, domestic resource mobilisation must improve; we cannot wait for foreign help while our glaciers melt and crops fail.
The path is clear, if daunting. We must streamline our climate governance, implement the Climate Change Act’s delayed provisions, and create promised institutions like the climate change authority. The private sector must be better incentivised to help find climate solutions.
The media also has a vital role. By shifting from disaster reporting to solutions-oriented journalism, it can engage the public and hold policymakers accountable. It must also break down the jargon that often hinders effective climate communication. The conference has shown the way. The question is whether the country can summon the political will — both local and international — and resources to follow it.
Published in Dawn, February 9th, 2025
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Rida Tahir // DAWN: 09 February 2025
(This article will give you an insight into the plight of women, especially the incarcerated women in Pakistan.)
THE global female prison population is growing at a faster rate than that of men. While women still represent a smaller percentage of the total prison population in most countries, at the global level, the number of incarcerated females has increased by 33 per cent, compared to a 25pc rise in the number of male prisoners.
Narcotics-related crimes are the primary reason for women’s imprisonment worldwide. Globally, 35pc of incarcerated women are imprisoned for narcotics-related offences, compared to 19pc men.
In Pakistan, there has been a 2.8pc increase in the female prison population, with 1,550 female inmates making up 1.5pc of the total prison population in 2024. Of the total, 73.41pc are under trial. Across Pakistan, 375 female prisoners have been detained under narcotics-related charges, according to the Narcotics Offences Factsheet 2025, released by Justice Project Pakistan.
Men are more likely to use drugs than women, making up over three-quarters of drug users worldwide, according to a 2024 UNODC report. However, women are increasingly being imprisoned for drug-related offences.
This is due to gender-based discrimination within the criminal justice system, which prevents women from achieving equal access to justice. Women are rarely involved in the main narcotics trade, and are often unsuspecting couriers. The arrest of women has a negligible effect on organised crime. Yet, they are easy targets for police.
Usually drug-related offences are considered ‘heinous’ offences, which are non-bailable. However, special provisions have been stipulated in the Code of Criminal Procedure regarding bail for women. Section 497(1) makes it easier for female offenders to obtain bail.
Women here remain unaware of their legal rights and are often economically disadvantaged and unable to afford legal representation. The state’s response has been ineffective in addressing the right to a fair trial and due process provided under Article 10A of the Constitution. For example, the Committee for the Welfare of Prisons established under Section 55 of the Sindh Prisons and Corrections Services Act, 2019, does not provide legal representation in ‘heinous offences’, which include narcotics-related offences. This leaves a significant gap in the protection of wrongfully accused individuals.
Missing gender diversity among criminal justice professionals plays a role in gender bias, stereotyping, stigma, and impunity. Women in the country hold fewer positions as police officers, prosecutors and judges in the justice system. Resultantly, the needs of the mostly male prisoners are given priority, even though the number of incarcerated women is increasing at a faster rate.
Moreover, women in prison have their own distinct challenges; for instance, separation from children, discrimination, violence, and limited access to drug treatment and rehab services. Gender roles lead to a strong stigma being attached to women in prisons. While wives usually support their husbands during and after imprisonment, women are more likely to be abandoned by their partners, families and community if they have spent time in jail.
The 2022 amendment to the Control of Narcotic Substances Act, 1997, remo-ved the death penalty but still imposes harsh penalties that disproportionately affect women.
To counter gender-based discrimination against women in conflict with the law, a comprehensive range of targeted interventions is required to tackle the challenges they face at every stage of criminal justice in Pakistan. These efforts should align with the 2010 UN Bangkok Rules on the Treatment of Women Prisoners and Non-Custodial Sanctions for Women Offenders.
Further, those in the justice system should follow the national laws that provide special provisions to women and children, in line with Article 25(3) of the Constitution.
The state should promote gender-responsive and non-custodial measures to reduce the unnecessary imprisonment of women through legal reform, and capacity building training of the justice system actors. Bail, probation, and parole should be used as alternatives to imprisonment when appropriate.
In terms of legal aid, the Women in Distress and Detention Fund Act, 1996, was repealed by the Legal Aid and Justice Authority Act, 2020. However, LAJA has been ineffective in protecting the rights of women in detention. The provincial and federal governments must strengthen women’s access to free legal aid while focusing on social reintegration programmes.
Ultimately, the state should focus on preventing crime, tackle its underlying causes, and create effective rehab programmes that offer second chances, instead of depending on harsh prison sentences.
The writer is a barrister of Lincoln’s Inn and an advocate of the high courts of Pakistan.
Published in Dawn, February 9th, 2025
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