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Arifa Noor // DAWN: 04 Feb 2025
EVERYONE seems to be in a hurry to forget Nov 26, from those who were behind it to those who faced the brunt of it.
The government must be relieved it is spoken about so little, while the PTI leadership in parliament or in government in KP is also averse to agitating over the issue. But other than the PTI-government tussle, this event had serious implications for a far more vulnerable group — the Afghan refugees in Islamabad.
Their victimisation came to light soon after the protest had ended. For instance, in the aftermath of the event, human rights lawyers such as Imaan Mazari highlighted the discriminatory treatment being meted out to the capital’s refugee and Pakhtun population and accused the law-enforcement authorities of racial profiling.
Poor and vulnerable Pakhtun people were said to have been picked up from different parts of the city, as officials tried to demonstrate their efficacy in maintaining security and sending a message to all and sundry about the ‘hazards’ of street protests.
Such claims were also lent credence by anecdotal accounts doing the rounds in the city, as friends and colleagues told stories of their friends and colleagues who were stopped by the police randomly — all they had in common was their ethnicity. But even within this ‘racial profiling’, there is a hierarchy, as refugees are the most vulnerable. And this is highlighted in a draft report which has been prepared by the JAC for Refugees, Karachi.
Based on documents such as FIRs collected from the various police stations in Islamabad, the report says 540 people were arrested during the PTI protest and later, of which 86 were Afghan nationals. According to the report, most of the refugees picked up were residents of Rawalpindi and Islamabad and were taken into custody during their commute to work or back. The majority of them were young men under the age of 25.
A 19-year-old quoted in the story explains how he was picked up when he stepped out to visit the pharmacy. “I was going to the pharmacy in Sector I-10 Islamabad. A policeman stopped me outside the market and bundled me into a van without a word. Later in the day, I found myself at police station Shams in Islamabad and found out I had been booked for having participated in the PTI protest.”
Some of those arrested were not even guilty of stepping out of their homes. A 20-year-old, according to the report, was picked up when a midnight raid was carried out on the basti he lived in. “I was thrown out of my bed by the police and arrested. I ended up in the lockup and later found out that I now faced terrorism charges.” He was picked up on Nov 29.
However, it seems the operation to pick up people began a few days before the PTI demonstrators entered Islamabad. For instance, one young man quoted in the report said he was picked up on Nov 23 when he was returning home. According to him, he was stopped by a policeman at a check-post; the refugee’s appearance was enough for the policeman to make the decision.
When the 21-year-old tried to resist, he was threatened that he would be charged with a “non-bailable” offence. The young man spent three days at the police station before he was charged. The report points out that the majority of the refugees who were picked up were daily wage workers who earn a living in wholesale vegetable markets.
The draft report also quotes those who claim they were asked for bribes in exchange for being released and not charged with crimes. While a few of them were able to pay hefty amounts, many others could not and continue to make their way through the judicial process.
But more worrying is the assertion that arresting Afghan refugees and charging them with serious offences has become the norm, which implies this is not limited to a particular event.
And this is an issue that needs more attention. After all, since the change of the regime in Kabul and the decision in Islamabad to send refugees back, Afghan refugees have increasingly become part of the political discourse, in a way that was not apparent earlier. For instance, recent decisions to send them back to Pakistan were linked to terrorist attacks in Pakistan.
Government officials claimed that the decision was made because Afghan nationals had been involved in terrorist attacks; in 2023 when this decision was announced, then interior minister Sarfraz Bugti made this connection in his statements. Even though many analyses on the decision pointed out that it perhaps stemmed from Islamabad’s desire to pressure Kabul into stopping the TTP from targeting Pakistan.
It did not stop here. Before, during, and after Nov 26, the government and other officials, in their effort to undermine the PTI protest, played up the ethnic angle. And while there was and there continues to be the idea that one province, KP, is attacking the centre and/ or Punjab, officials also alleged that the PTI was bringing Afghans to Islamabad during the protest.
In fact, once the dharna was over, a story made its way to electronic news channels in which different young men confessed on camera that they were illegal refugees who had been paid to take part in the protest; in addition, they also admitted to acts of violence during that period such as damaging property or attacking law-enforcement personnel.
Whether this was done to simply disparage the PTI or to undermine the protest without alienating the Pakhtuns remains unclear. However, what it has and will continue to do is to spread this idea that refugees are linked to violence.
And as both the tussle with the PTI and the government in Kabul continues, chances are this ‘targeting’ of the refugees will not stop, verbally or in actions.
The writer is a journalist.
Published in Dawn, February 4th, 2025
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DAWN Editorial: 04 Feb 2025
THE unacceptable loss of at least 22 security men in two separate attacks between Friday and Saturday — in Balochistan and KP — underscore the need to address the problem of terrorism in both provinces with alacrity.
In the first incident, at least 18 paramilitary troops were martyred as they were reportedly ambushed by terrorists in Kalat. In the second episode, four Levies personnel from Balochistan were martyred in KP’s Dera Ismail Khan, near the border of both provinces.
The Kalat atrocity has been claimed by the separatist BLA, and while no group has accepted responsibility for the D.I. Khan attack, the area is known to have a TTP presence. These abhorrent attacks illustrate the fact that the biggest terrorist threat Pakistan faces comes from two major actors: religiously inspired militants, and separatist forces.
Though there is no evidence to suggest that the BLA and TTP coordinated these attacks, some experts have said that the latter may be courting the former to jointly fight the state.
After KP, Balochistan is most affected by militancy. As per one think tank, there were at least 24 terrorist attacks in the province last month, resulting in the loss of 11 security men and six civilians.
The sophistication and frequency of attacks indicate that separatist forces may be getting help from external hostile actors. Undoubtedly, the state’s first priority should be to secure all of Balochistan, and ensure that its people are able to live in peace.
While security operations need to be carried out to ensure terrorist groups cannot operate freely, efforts are also required on the diplomatic front to confront inimical states, and warn them against stoking fires within the country. Moreover, funding and arms transfers to the separatists must be traced and blocked.
Yet, while the state cannot compromise on Balochistan’s security, a distinction needs to be made between the province’s political forces, and separatist militants. Conflating the two is unhelpful, and state action against political activists may actually propel the latter towards militancy.
Poverty, underdevelopment and the issue of enforced disappearances are hard realities in Balochistan.
Therefore, those elements that raise these issues in a democratic fashion should not be demonised by the state. Lately, we have seen terrorism cases filed against Baloch rights activists. Indeed, in the heat of the moment, some activists may use questionable language during rallies and protests, but this cannot be equated with terrorism.
While the state should confront and neutralise actual terrorists murdering security personnel and innocent civilians, an accommodative approach is required where Baloch activists and political forces are concerned.
Though trust between the estranged Baloch population and the state cannot be built overnight, the government’s most potent counterterrorism weapon can be ensuring Balochistan’s full constitutional rights.
Published in Dawn, February 4th, 2025
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DAWN Editorial : 04 Feb 2025
THE dramatic fall in global fertility rates — from 4.8 births per woman in 1970 to 2.2 in 2024 — represents one of history’s great demographic shifts. Yet some nations remain stuck in transition. Pakistan, South Asia’s second-most-populous country, exemplifies both progress and challenges in bringing birth rates to sustainable levels. The country’s fertility rate has tumbled from six births per woman in 1994 to 3.6 today, according to the UN’s latest World Fertility Report. But this masks stark disparities. Urban women average far fewer children than their rural counterparts. The adolescent birth rate, at 40 per 1,000 women aged 15-19, remains stubbornly high. At current trends, Pakistan will not reach replacement-level fertility of 2.1 children until 2079 — decades behind its neighbours. Bangladesh’s fertility rate has fallen to 2.14 and is projected to reach replacement level by 2026. India achieved replacement-level fertility in 2020. Nova CSS Academy recommends that you note down the important facts and figure published in this editorial.
This matters enormously for Pakistan’s development prospects. High fertility strains public services and household resources. Yet managed properly, a falling birth rate could yield a ‘demographic dividend’ of working-age adults unburdened by dependents, powering economic growth as it did in East Asia. Achieving this requires a more muscular approach from policymakers. Access to family planning remains patchy, particularly in rural areas. Many women lack the autonomy to make reproductive choices. Child marriage, though illegal, persists. Meanwhile, female labour force participation remains among the world’s lowest. The government should integrate family planning into primary healthcare while expanding girls’ education and women’s employment. Religious leaders could be enlisted to challenge cultural resistance to contraception. Better data collection would help target interventions. None of this is rocket science. Bangladesh shows what determined policy can achieve. But our lacklustre governance limits implementation, while conservative social attitudes run deep. Without sustained political will to complete the fertility transition, we risks squandering our demographic moment. The next decade could prove decisive.
Published in Dawn, February 4th, 2025
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China on Tuesday slapped tariffs on US imports in a rapid response to new US duties on Chinese goods, renewing a trade war between the world’s top two economies as President Donald Trump sought to punish China for not halting the flow of illicit drugs.
Trump on Monday suspended his threat of 25pc tariffs on Mexico and Canada at the last minute, agreeing to a 30-day pause in return for concessions on border and crime enforcement with the two neighbouring countries.
But there was no such reprieve for China. Trump’s additional 10 per cent tariff across all Chinese imports into the US came into effect at 12:01am ET on Tuesday (10:01am PKT).
Within minutes, China’s Finance Ministry said it would impose levies of 15pc for US coal and LNG and 10pc for crude oil, farm equipment and some autos.
The new tariffs on US exports will start on February 10, the ministry said.
Separately, China’s Commerce Ministry and its Customs Administration said the country is imposing export controls on tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, molybdenum and ruthenium-related items to “safeguard national security interests”.
“The trade war is in the early stages so the likelihood of further tariffs is high,” Oxford Economics said in a note as it downgraded its China economic growth forecast.
A White House spokesperson said Trump would not be speaking with Chinese President Xi Jinping until later in the week.
During his first term in 2018, Trump initiated a brutal two-year trade war with China over its massive US trade surplus, with tit-for-tat tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods upending global supply chains and damaging the world economy.
To end that trade war, China agreed in 2020 to spend an extra $200 billion a year on US goods but the plan was derailed by the Covid pandemic and its annual trade deficit had widened to $361bn, according to Chinese customs data released last month.
Trump warned he might increase tariffs on China further unless Beijing stemmed the flow of fentanyl, a deadly opioid, into the United States.
“China hopefully is going to stop sending us fentanyl, and if they’re not, the tariffs are going to go substantially higher,” he said on Monday.
China has called fentanyl America’s problem and said it would challenge the tariffs at the World Trade Organisation and take other countermeasures, but also left the door open for talks.
China says to probe Google over anti-monopoly violations
After Washington slapped 10pc levies on Chinese goods, China said it would probe US tech giant Google over violations of anti-monopoly laws.
Beijing’s State Administration for Market Regulation said the US tech giant was “suspected of violating the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People’s Republic of China”.
It has “launched an investigation into Google in accordance with the law” as a result, the administration said in a statement.
Beijing also said it would add US fashion group PVH Corporation — which owns Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein — and biotech giant Illumina to a list of “unreliable entities”.
The move would “safeguard national sovereignty, security and development interests, in accordance with relevant laws”, China’s commerce ministry said in a statement.
“The above two entities violate normal market transaction principles, interrupt normal transactions with Chinese enterprises, and take discriminatory measures against Chinese enterprises,” it added.
China in September said it was investigating PVH for “unreasonably boycotting” cotton from its Xinjiang region, where Beijing is accused of widespread rights violations. This news item has been selected by Nova CSS Academy, G-10/1, Islamabad.
Neighbourly deals
There was relief in Ottawa and Mexico City, as well as global financial markets, after the deals to avert the hefty tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
Both Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said they had agreed to bolster border enforcement efforts in response to Trump’s demand to crack down on immigration and drug smuggling. That would pause 25pc tariffs due to take effect on Tuesday for 30 days.
Canada agreed to deploy new technology and personnel along its border with the United States and launch cooperative efforts to fight organised crime, fentanyl smuggling and money laundering.
Mexico agreed to reinforce its northern border with 10,000 National Guard members to stem the flow of illegal migration and drugs.
The United States also made a commitment to prevent trafficking of high-powered weapons to Mexico, Sheinbaum said.
“As president, it is my responsibility to ensure the safety of all Americans, and I am doing just that. I am very pleased with this initial outcome,” Trump said on social media.
After speaking by phone with both leaders, Trump said he would try to negotiate economic agreements over the coming month with the two largest US trading partners, whose economies have become tightly intertwined with the United States since a landmark free-trade deal was struck in the 1990s.
The latest twist in the saga sent the Canadian dollar soaring after slumping to its lowest in more than two decades. The news also gave US stock index futures a lift after a day of losses on Wall Street, and sent oil prices lower. Industry groups, fearful of disrupted supply chains, welcomed the pause.
“That’s very encouraging news,” said Chris Davison, who heads a trade group of Canadian canola producers. “We have a highly integrated industry that benefits both countries.”
Trump suggested on Sunday the 27-nation European Union would be his next target, but did not say when.
EU leaders at an informal summit in Brussels on Monday said Europe would be prepared to fight back if the US imposes tariffs, but also called for reason and negotiation. The US is the EU’s largest trade and investment partner.
Trump hinted that Britain, which left the EU in 2020, might be spared tariffs.
Trump acknowledged over the weekend that his tariffs could cause some short-term pain for US consumers, but says they are needed to curb immigration and narcotics trafficking and spur domestic industries.
The tariffs as originally planned would cover almost half of all US imports and would require the United States to more than double its own manufacturing output to cover the gap — an unfeasible task in the near term, ING analysts wrote.
Other analysts said the tariffs could throw Canada and Mexico into recession and trigger “stagflation” — high inflation, stagnant growth and elevated unemployment — at home. Nova CSS Academy suggests reading this news item in tandem with the next news item.
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US President Donald Trump’s trade war with neighbours Canada and Mexico has prompted vows of reciprocal tariffs.
The three countries, which have deeply integrated economies and supply chains, see an estimated $2bn worth of manufactured goods crossing the borders daily, according to a BBC News report.
So which products could get more expensive in the days to come?
Cars
Cars are likely to go up in price — by about $3,000. That’s because parts cross the US, Canadian and Mexican borders multiple times before a vehicle is assembled.
As a result of higher taxes paid on the importing of parts to build the cars, it is likely the costs will be passed on to customers.
Alcohol
Popular Mexican beers could get more expensive for US customers if the American companies importing them pass on the increased import taxes. However, it’s also possible that rather than passing on the cost increase, firms could just import less.
When it comes to spirits, certain brands, such as Bourbon, Tennessee whiskey, tequila and Canadian whisky are “recognised as distinctive products and can only be produced in their designated countries”.
So given the production of these drinks cannot simply be moved, supplies might be impacted, leading to price rises. The trade bodies also highlighted that many companies own different spirit brands in all three countries.
Homes
Imports of Canadian lumber are set to be hit by import tariffs to the US. Trump has said the US has “more lumber than we ever use”.
However, the National Association of Home Builders has urged the president to exempt building materials from the proposed tariffs “because of their harmful effect on housing affordability”.
The industry body has “serious concerns” that the tariffs on lumber could increase the cost of building homes — which are mostly made out of wood in the US — and also put off developers building new homes.
“Consumers end up paying for the tariffs in the form of higher home prices,” the NAHB said..
Maple syrup
When it comes to the trade war with Canada, the “most obvious” household impact is on the price of Canadian maple syrup, according to Thomas Sampson, associate professor of economics at the London School of Economics.
Canada’s billion-dollar maple syrup industry accounts for 75pc of the world’s entire maple syrup production.
The majority of the sweet staple — around 90pc — is produced in the province of Quebec, where the world’s sole strategic reserve of maple syrup was set up 24 years ago.
Fuel prices
Canada is America’s largest foreign supplier of crude oil. According to the most recent official trade figures, 61pc of oil imported into the US between January and November last year came from Canada.
While 25pc has been slapped on Canadian goods imported to the US, its energy faces a lower 10pc tariff.
The US doesn’t have a shortage of oil, but the type its refineries are designed to process means it depends on so-called “heavier” — i.e. thicker — crude oil from mostly Canada and some from Mexico.
Avocados
One food import that American consumers may see a significant price increase in is avocados. Grown primarily in Mexico due to its warm, humid climate, Mexican avocados make up nearly 90pc of the US avocado market each year.
However, with the introduction of new tariffs, the US Agriculture Department has warned that the cost of avocados — along with popular avocado-based dishes like guacamole — could surge, especially by Super Bowl Sunday on Feb 9.
Published in Dawn, February 4th, 2025
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