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Editorial // DAWN: 11 January, 2025
AS much mistrust marks Pakistan’s relations with the Afghan Taliban, Kabul’s rulers are reaching out to regional states in order to break out from their isolation and deepen economic ties.
While no one has formally recognised the Taliban regime, states are doing business with Kabul just short of recognition. In a significant development, the Taliban foreign minister met the Indian foreign secretary in Dubai recently, with the Afghan side describing India as a “significant regional and economic partner.”
Trade relations were apparently the key area of discussion. It should be remembered that India was a major player in Afghanistan before the 2021 Taliban takeover. According to media reports, New Delhi had pumped $3bn into Afghanistan for ‘reconstruction’ projects, and the erstwhile Northern Alliance members had warm relations with India. The Indians have reacted cautiously with the Taliban, but matters are proceeding nonetheless. The Taliban also maintain significant links with China and Russia.
These developments should concern Pakistan, and make its policymakers revisit their Afghan strategy. The stark fact is that while the Afghan Taliban may be difficult customers, Pakistan cannot afford a hostile neighbour to its west. Islamabad’s concerns about TTP bases in Afghanistan are valid, but it needs to perhaps change its strategy with the Taliban so that the message sinks in.
At a recent seminar in Islamabad, some experts were of the view that instead of communicating with the rulers in Kabul, Pakistan must raise the TTP issue with the Taliban leadership in Kandahar, from where the real power in Afghanistan flows.
Though Taliban supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada is a reclusive figure, if Pakistan were to successfully engage him or those close to him, and convince them to relocate the TTP and other anti-Pakistan terrorists away from the border, this might improve the security situation in the country with minimum costs. Such moves have been tried before — with limited success — when the Taliban leadership issued a fatwa in 2023 stopping its cadres from waging a ‘jihad’ inside Pakistan.
The Taliban are welcome to keep the TTP, as long as they pose no harm to Pakistan. The present strategy — limited talks with and kinetic action against Kabul — has failed to resolve the problem. As others are making diplomatic inroads with the Afghan Taliban, including unfriendly governments, Pakistan must reassess and readjust its strategy.
Islamabad should work with other regional states to stress that the Taliban must take stronger counterterrorism measures, so that militant groups cannot threaten Afghanistan’s neighbours. Yet it must also engage the Taliban high command in Kandahar, as well as the politicians in Kabul, so that the doors of negotiation are not closed. If relations sour further with Afghanistan, it will add to insecurity in this country, and give hostile states room to manoeuvre.
Published in Dawn, January 11th, 2025
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Editorial // DAWN: 11 January, 2025
STATE Bank Governor Jameel Ahmed appears to be quite optimistic over recent economic gains. That is not unusual; after all the nation has made a comeback from the edge of default. Speaking with business leaders in Karachi the other day, he said the policy measures (implemented by the bank) have set the stage for full restoration of economic activities in the country, adding that an uptick in remittances and a dip in inflation would lend (further) stability to the economy this year. There are signs that the country’s economy has stabilised after nearly three years of a full-blown crisis. Indeed, the role of the SBP in pulling off this stability cannot be overstated. Headline inflation is down to just 4.1pc and is expected to fall further to around 3pc this month, the rupee-dollar exchange rate remains stable, the haemorrhage of foreign exchange has been stemmed, the country’s international reserves have grown from $3bn to over $11bn despite debt payments, and the current account is running a surplus on soaring remittances and somewhat improved exports. The interest rates are coming down and private credit is said to be picking up pace. Today, the economic environment is a lot less volatile and uncertain than it was even a few months ago.
These are all positive developments and must be appreciated. That said, the recovery remains fragile and dependent on bilateral debt rollbacks and IMF crutches. The drying official and private capital inflows offer little reassurance about the future. The economy still remains trapped in a low-growth equilibrium despite improving macro indicators. Many believe that growth will remain elusive for some years, at least as the economy is yet to recover the kind of strength it needs to support faster expansion without hitting yet another, deeper crisis. The government is slow in implementing structural reforms and the price of this inaction is being borne by citizens and organised businesses. Rather, the ruling PML-N appears divided over reforms needed to put the economy on a sustained growth path and showing signs of impatience with the stabilisation policies due to political challenges from its rivals in Punjab. A lot of hope is attached to the promised investments from the Gulf nations, which the ruling party policymakers expect could offer them space to pursue faster growth. Until that happens, they can try selling ambitions like Uraan Pakistan.
Published in Dawn, January 11th, 2025
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Naseer Memon //DAWN: 11 January, 2025
SINDH comprises 18 per cent of Pakistan’s land mass and 16pc of its total cultivable area.
While the agricultural sector is the lynchpin of the provincial economy, Sindh also contributes about 23pc to the country’s national agricultural value added: 41pc to the national output of rice, 31pc to sugarcane and 21pc to wheat. The rural communities and urban markets rely heavily on the performance of this integral sector.
Although over half of Sindh’s population resides in urban areas, with the largest industrial base in Karachi, acute water shortage has blighted its municipal operations. Life and economy will become unsustainable without a robust strategic plan. A multisectoral water policy was approved last year and, at present, the province is developing a water plan. The latter will guide the application of the policy.
Sindh’s waterscape faces a host of challenges: from the perennial issue of a reduced provincial water share from upper riparian regions to political and operational mismanagement, including water theft, unofficial diversions, direct outlets from main canals, tampering with outlets, poorly maintained watercourses and regulators, clogged waterways, contamination caused by untreated effluent from industries, and unregulated groundwater mining. The dwindling water supply and diminishing soil productivity demands that the government reconsider Sindh’s cropping pattern.
Between 2002 and 2021, there has been a significant increase in the cultivation of three water-intensive crops: rice cultivation rose by 55pc in acreage, from 488,000 hectares to 756,000 hectares; cotton by 9.5pc, from 542,000 acres to 594,000 acres; and sugarcane by 14.3pc, from 258,000 acres to 295,000 acres.
Over the last decade, sugarcane and rice farming expanded by 30pc; meanwhile, cotton guzzles 10,000 to 20,000 litres of water per kilogramme. Similarly, rice consumes 1,500 to 3,000 litres per kg and sugarcane requires 1,500 to 2,500 litres. Such reckless water consumption will deplete the shrinking domestic water resource faster.
Sindh’s potential to enhance agriculture productivity is untapped. According to researchby Dr Waheed Bhutto, published in South Asia Journal, the average wheat yield was 50 maund per acre in 2020, while the yield in Rajasthan was some 65 maund in the same period. Sindh’s average rice yield per acre in 2019 was 30 maund, while Rajasthan produced 40 maund. The difference indicates potentially devastating water inefficiency created by the rampant neglect of channels and obsolete farming practices. Substandard seeds and agricultural implements also contribute to the shortage.
Moreover, salinity, waterlogging and conveyance losses have slashed soil output in Sindh. Hardly a third of water diverted from the central canal is put to proper use, the remaining resource either percolates or evaporates due to taxing climate conditions. About 20 to 25pc of irrigation water goes to waste because of uneven fields, its excess raises the water table and accumulates salt in the soil.
Both waterlogging and salinity have damaged half of the irrigated land. In fact, salinity, particularly in Sindh’s lower districts, is beyond alarming levels. Hence, some estimates show the loss of crop production hitting 40 to 60pc. Wapda’s Salinity Control and Reclamation Projects and prime effluent drains, such as the LBOD and RBOD, have failed to provide any relief. The process and pace of land degradation continues unabated.
Sindh has to be prudent in water application. It also needs to use modern technology to create favourable conditions for additional cropping, such as contemporary HEIS with drip and sprinkler irrigation methods. The drip irrigation system can save up to 50pc of water in certain instances as well as bring about extraordinary improvement in the crop yield.
In addition, all local stakeholders should collaborate to develop comprehensive flood plans, as ineffective water management not only harms the soil, it also destroys the prospects of socioeconomic progress. Blocked flow paths jeopardise every aspect of growth as they obstruct the natural drainage of alluvial and pluvial floods. The situation is further complicated by Sindh’s flat topography.
A study by the Sindh Irrigation and Drainage Authority in 2012 identified the network of choked channels and recommended solutions, such as cleared floodplains, to avert climate catastrophes as witnessed in 2022. In short, Sindh’s climate resilient and expansive water plan has to break away from old practices for a climate shock proof and prosperous province.
The writer is a civil society professional.
nme*mon2004@yahoo.com*
Published in Dawn, January 11th, 2025
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Editorial // DAWN: 11 January, 2025
THE country’s aviation authorities can rest a little easy. After a four-year banishment from European skies, Pakistan International Airlines flight PK-749 departed yesterday from Islamabad for Paris Charles-de-Gaulle Airport shortly after noon. There seemed to be quite a bit of interest in the event, with the flight among the top 10 being followed by aviation enthusiasts on FlightRadar24, a website that tracks airlines, for more than half an hour after its departure. It marked a welcome break from the serial crises that have chased the national airline for years, which suffered immense setbacks after the devastating crash of PK-8303 near Karachi airport in May 2020 led to revelations about inadequate pilot training and air safety measures. The repercussions were severe and included flight restrictions on PIA in many lucrative markets. Much effort has gone into reversing global perceptions about PIA since then, and it is encouraging to note that international regulators now seem more receptive when considering the airline’s safety profile.
The reopening of the European market to PIA will improve the airline’s viability, and it is hoped that the UK will be next to allow it to operate direct flights there again. The state has long wanted to rid itself of the burden of running a commercial airline but has found no serious takers, given PIA’s financial troubles and operational limitations. The fact that it has now demonstrated that it is ready for re-entry into more markets and compliant with stringent air safety requirements laid down by foreign regulators will sweeten the deal and aid privatisation efforts. Regardless of how the privatisation effort proceeds, however, the airline should keep its focus on reviving international operations, especially in the UK, which is a particularly important market considering the size of the expatriate population living there, as well as its social and economic linkages with Pakistan. The PIA management must not falter in this task.
Published in Dawn, January 11th, 2025
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