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Aizaz Choudhary
IN the first 50 years of its existence as an independent state, India had uneasy ties with the US. India preferred in those years a close partnership with the Soviet Union. Since the dawn of the 21st century, however, India’s relationship with the US has morphed into a strategic partnership, with unprecedented levels of politico-military cooperation. The primary dynamic behind this upswing is the US competition with China, a rising economic and military power. The US would like to see India as a counterweight to China, and has engaged it in its Indo-Pacific strategy, the Quad, and similar initiatives that are seemingly aimed at containing the further rise of China.
The Indo-US strategic partnership covers a broad range of areas of cooperation. Notably, the US is India’s largest trading partner in goods and services, whose value has grown 10 times since 2000, and the third largest source of FDI for India. Americans of Indian origin have integrated well into American society, and are occupying important positions in the political, economic and technology domains. The relationship enjoys bipartisan support in the US Congress, where India is viewed as a fellow democracy. The India Caucus in the US Congress has over 150 members.
What has further cemented Indo-US ties is a consistent rise in the economic profile of India, which has come a long way from an inward-looking economy, facing a serious balance-of payments crisis in 1991 to a broadly liberal economy, the fifth largest in 2024, with aspirations to become the third largest in the near term. India has also surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country and emerged as a lucrative market for the US-led West. Its foreign currency reserves exceed $650 billion.
With increased wealth at its disposal, India is currently the fourth largest military spender. Its defence cooperation with the US is multifaceted, and includes a growing number of joint military exercises. Defence procurements from the US are also increasing, and major US-origin platforms are now in India’s use. The two countries have signed a series of defence agreements to pave the way for access to each other’s logistics, encrypted communications, geospatial intelligence, and fast-track technology exchange. During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2023 visit to the US, Washington agreed to the co-production of F-414 jet engines, including significant technology transfer for India’s indigenous aircraft manufacturing capabilities, and an agreement to supply India with advanced drones to enhance its intel and operational capabilities.
The Indo-US partnership covers a range of areas of cooperation.
However, the US has serious concerns about the relationship. According to the Stimson Centre, there are hurdles to taking cooperation to the next level. Firstly, India’s capacity to absorb foreign technology faces many legal, coordination, and procedural issues. Secondly, the US is ‘unsure’ of India’s political will to deter China in the Western Pacific, because India’s priority seems to be the Indian Ocean region. Thirdly, India has not blocked its trade and investment ties with China. Fourthly, Washington is deeply concerned over New Delhi’s close relations with Moscow and its independent stance on Ukraine and the purchase of Russian oil. Fifthly, India is teaming up with BRICS to explore trade in currencies other than the dollar. Sixthly, the US has concerns over India’s policy of persecuting religious minorities and sending operatives to assassinate opponents on foreign soil.
This is not to suggest that the US is having second thoughts about its relationship with India. In fact, it is going out of its way to ignore the Indian leadership’s tendency to assert India’s ‘strategic autonomy’. Although the American ambassador to India was blunt in challenging the use of the term ‘strategic autonomy’, his government did waive the CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act) for India to let it buy a missile system from Russia.
Last month, Senator Marco Rubio introduced a bill in Congress calling for treating India like Japan, Israel, South Korea and Nato members, in terms of sharing advanced weaponry with it. The bill was blatantly anti-China and also echoed the Indian view of Pakistan.
The US tilt raises deep security concerns for Pakistan as it encourages the Indian leadership to act as a net security provider, ie, hegemon, in South Asia. Washington tends to view Islamabad from the lens of Sino-Pak ties, and thus maintains minimal contact with it.
It is clear that whoever wins the US presidential elections in November will continue efforts to strengthen Indo-US ties, and would be unlikely to change the low-profile trajectory of Pak-US relations, which might oblige Pakistan to explore other options.
The writer is a former foreign secretary, and chairman Sanober Institute Islamabad.
Published in Dawn, August 25th, 2024
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By Abbas Nasir
TODAY, a new round of peace talks begins in Cairo but all indications are that Israel’s genocidal Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is setting conditions that Hamas will find impossible to accept, such as a continued Israeli military presence in Gaza.
The main pressure for a peace deal is coming from the Biden administration, which in its final months in office, wants some sort of foreign policy success on its report card that may also boost the chances of Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race.
But committed as the US administration is to supporting Israel come what may, it is not clear what leverage it may have in order to exert pressure on Tel Aviv to agree to a deal acceptable to all parties. So far, billions of dollars of military supplies such as bombs, missiles and equipment are flowing freely from the US to Israel. It is abundantly clear that that lever will not be used.
So far, of the 40,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza since October last year, some 14,000 are children. The number of wounded children, which include many multiple amputees, is no less. An even greater tragedy is reflected in the term ‘wounded child with no surviving family’. There are countless numbers of WCNSF as they are called.
Among the ummah, the only defiant stand against Israel, even if limited, has been taken by Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Images of Palestinian children murdered in the most brutal of ways land in the US via social media and sections of the traditional media every day, every hour but even those horrific photos and footage do not seem to move the political decision-makers.
Israel’s scorched earth military campaign that has destroyed most of Gaza and its infrastructure, including the water/ power supply system, roads, schools, universities and many hospitals besides thousands of homes, has not drawn any adverse reaction from the US, UK, Germany and other Western powers.
In fact, the US and Germany have tried hard to use law-enforcement forces to crush domestic pro-Palestinian protests and many people around the world who live under oppression must only have reacted in shock at the brutality with which German and American police personnel have laid into the protesters in these so-called bastions of democracy and free speech.
The reasons for this softly-softly policy towards Israel may have less to do with historical factors such as the Hitler-perpetrated Holocaust and more to do with security concerns, the need for a dependable military ally in the face of Arab domination in the oil-rich Middle East and Gulf. (Many of these despotic Arab rulers are diehard US allies anyway).
An equally important, perhaps even more significant, factor is how, for example, politicians’ campaigns in the US and UK are funded by pro-Israeli big-money individuals and organisations that often tread a fine line when it comes to being ‘distanced’ from the government of Israel to comply with foreign-funding restrictions; nonetheless they work zealously for the interests of the state of Israel.
Just google organisations such as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee to learn the extent to which they fund the campaigns of pro-Israel politicians in the US. They are spending literally millions of dollars in primaries and congressional elections, besides the presidential race, to have a say in policy. Most recently it has taken out high-profile pro-Palestinian candidates in Democratic primaries for the Congress, with one or two exceptions.
The UK story is not dissimilar. Both mainstream Labour and Conservative parties’ candidates receive campaign contributions from Labour Friends of Israel (LFI) and Conservative Friends of Israel (CFI).
In a country whose system mandates that all elected officials file declarations of interest in the register held in parliament and most regularly do, the source of funding of LFI and CFI is not clear, but this lack of transparency does not bother anyone. Little surprise that all ‘concern’ that UK government leaders express about Gaza has not translated into an arms embargo.
While it’s right to look at the duplicity of the compromised Western leaders and politicians, it is also incumbent on commentators, analysts and even activists to examine the response of the ummah, the Muslim countries, towards the genocidal Israeli campaign in Gaza.
From the oil-rich Muslim states with trillions of dollars invested/ deposited in Western economies and fuelling their growth and prosperity, to Muslim countries with ostensibly formidable militaries, none have exerted pressure; they have largely indulged in lip service that Israel has not even considered worthy of a contemptuous reaction.
What was once an effective guerrilla force, the Palestine Liberation Organisation has now been eviscerated and is incapable of defending Palestinians under the umbrella of its Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, what to talk of Gaza where its rival Hamas evicted it after a bloody fight a decade and a half ago.
However, just like the US and Germany, most Muslim countries, represented in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation have very diligently and ruthlessly quelled any street protests against Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza. Who knows if it is lack of empathy or fear that anti-Israel protests could snowball into demonstrations against despotic rule at home.
While protesters in the UK have been defying their past and present pro-Israel governments, countries such as Spain, Norway, Ireland and even tiny Slovenia have seen large demonstrations almost every weekend for the past 10 months where governments and people have joined hands against the Gaza outrage.
Among the ummah, the only defiant stand against Israel, even if limited, has been taken by what the allies in the grouping call the Axis of Resistance comprising Iran, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis. But years of sanctions have meant that those in the resistance have denuded capability and resources to offer ‘effective resistance’. This is where the ummah stands today.
While Gazans are being butchered with callous abandon, in a sad reflection on Israeli society, Netanyahu who was facing corruption allegations and possibly prison before the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct 7 last year, is now leading in the opinion polls. His Likud party’s fortunes have been revived by his murderous campaign.
The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
abbas.nasir@hotmail.com
Published in Dawn, August 25th, 2024 |
